..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 19, 2023..

 

NEW INVESTMENT NO NUMBER YET:  

• This one is off the African coast and has a low 0–20% formation chance through 48 hours and 7 days. THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING HEALTHY AT THIS TIME, BUT IT HAS A SMALL AREA OF FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THRIVE ON. To its south, there is wind shear, and to its north, the same. As this system tracks northward, it will move into an unfavorable environment. IF IT REMAINS WEAK, IT WILL CONTINUE WEST AS A TROPICAL WAVE WITH A SLOW CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT, IF AT ALL. However, I will continue to monitor its progress.

INVEST 98L: 

 

• has a high 70–70% formation chance through 48 hours and 7 days. THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO HOSTILE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND DEVELOPMENT, IF ANY, WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR UNLESS CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

INVEST 99L: 

• has a medium 50–50% chance for formation through 48 hours and 7 days. This storm system has also moved into an upper-level wind environment, and if it manages to develop, it should be a short-lived storm system.

INVEST 90L: 

• This system has a medium 40–60% formation chance through 48 hours and 7 days. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT FAVORABLE BUT THEY COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A DEPRESSION COULD FORM ACCORDING TO NHC.   LESSER ANTILLES IS EXPERINCING SQUALLY CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.  INTEREST IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAITI, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INVEST IN THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST OF FLORIDA:

• is forecast to track into the eastern Gulf tonight. AS IT TRACKS SOUTH OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING, IT WILL DRAG SHOWERS STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINS IN THOSE STRONGER CELLS. ALTHOUGH LIVE HIGH RESOLUTION RADAR IS SHOWING LESS PRECIPITION OVER THE BAHAMAS, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS MOISTURE IN THE UPPER, MIDDLE, AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SO THE MOISTURE IS THERE, BUT THE INTENSITY OF STORMS SEEMS TO BE LESS THAN THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE SUN WAS HEATING THE ENVIRONMENT. SO SOME MAY SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS, OTHER MAY NOT, AS I SEE ON RADAR AT THIS TIME. I WILL MONITOR FROM MY PHONE THIS EVENING AND WILL POST ON MY TWITTER (X) OR FACEBOOK PAGE.

RTW

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE

MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE

UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE

EURO ENSEMBLE SHOWS A WIDE SPREAD FORECAST FOR 90L THAT IS WHY FORECAST IS SO HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. Also, we will have to monitor the southern Gulf for lows to come up out of the East Pacific.

GEFS ENSEMBLE ALSO HAS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST. 

This season is not going to be an easy one.

WRN Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador