..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 18, 2023..

 

Invest 98L is moving through favorable upper-level winds, but to its north there is Sahara dust and dry air. Development should occur slowly, if at all.

98L will split into two parts, which will track west-northwest while 98L tracks northwest into the dry air and weaken. The other area that will track into the east Caribbean is forecast to develop, possibly as it nears the Dominican Republic by early next week.

Invest 99L has a broad circulation and seems to have a better chance for development. However, 99L is sandwiched in between unfavorable wind shear. Also, Saharan dry air encompasses most of the North Atlantic. If 99L manages to become a tropical cyclone, it is more than likely that it will be a short-lived storm system.

Storm Invest, north of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, is associated with a westward-tracking wave near eastern Cuba and an upper-level low near Jamaica. The upper low is producing enough upper-level lift to enhance storms over the northern axis of the wave. As this wave and upper low track west-northwest, they will enhance showers and storms over the Bahamas this weekend and Florida before tracking into the Gulf of Mexico. Then, early next week, a low will develop in the Gulf and track westward toward the southern Texas-Mexico border, bringing storms to this region. There is a chance that this system will become a tropical depression or storm before it makes landfall along the Texas-Mexico border or points north of that area. This could become a potential flood zone for this area if this system brings rain to this area.

RTW

WRN Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador