..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 17, 2023..

 

NHC is still monitoring two waves with a 40–60% chance of formation within 48 hours and 7 days. Development has been slow because these waves are sandwiched between westerly upper-level shear and Sahara dust and dry air (SAL). Both of these systems are forecast to track northwest over the North Atlantic in due time.  

RTW

 ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with 
an elongated trough of low pressure centered over 900 miles 
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a 
tropical depression could form during the next several days while 
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
A broad area of low pressure, partially associated with a tropical 
wave, is producing a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms near and to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  
Further development of this low is possible while it moves toward 
the west-northwest or northwest at around 10 mph across the 
eastern tropical Atlantic, and a tropical depression could form over 
the weekend before environmental conditions become unfavorable for 
development early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

3. Western Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form in the central or western 
Gulf of Mexico by the beginning of next week. Some slow development 
of this system is possible thereafter as it moves westward and 
approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of 
next week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Bucci

I am monitoring a tropical wave between the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico that is producing strong to moderate storms north of the Dominican Republic. This wave seems to be interacting with a weak, elongated trough of low pressure in the upper levels between Cuba and Haiti. This is helping to enhance storms west of the northern wave axis.

 

Model Ensemble and some of the other models show this system tracking west-northwest under Florida and possibly bringing heavy rainfall for Florida as it tracks west, then possibly developing next week in the Gulf of Mexico. It could become a depression or tropical storm as it heads toward Texas.

RTW

The GEFS Ensemble does not seem to pick up on the low in the Gulf.

Water Vapor Satellite shows the dry air in the upper levels over the Atlantic that is hindering development of these storm systems at this time.

This graphics map which I borrowed from UW-CIMSS/NESDIS shows areas with favorable and unfavorable wind shear.  I wrote it in white lettering so you can visualize it better.

WRN Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador