..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 16, 2023..

 

Tropical waves over the east Atlantic are encountering Sahara dust and dry air. Also, upper-level winds are not all that favorable at this time. So development should be slow for now. Model forecasts are suggesting that these two systems, if they do develop, will track over the north-central Atlantic. I will continue to monitor.

Green Favorable Winds, Yellow Neutral (Marginal) and Red Unfavorable Winds

Below map forecast map is courtesy of  CIMSS

East Atlantic African Continent and Atlantic a thin area of Marginally Favorable Winds, 

sandwiched in between unfavorable winds.

For now, areas to watch closely are in the South and West Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.

The Gulf is also being monitored into next week for possible development from the east as low pressure could develop. Models are not showing anything significant, but that could change as model forecasts are constantly changing from run to run. So Texas should monitor the forecast into next week and be prepared just in case.

RTW

Satellite Courtesy of Weathernerds

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the central 
tropical Atlantic are associated with an elongated trough of low 
pressure centered about 750 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde 
Islands.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual 
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form 
during the next several days while moving toward the west or 
west-northwest at about 10 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large 
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  This system is 
forecast to move toward the west-northwest at about 15 mph, with an 
area of low pressure expected to form in a day or so just to the 
west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Further development of the low is 
possible, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend 
before environmental conditions become unfavorable early next week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Western Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form in the central or western 
Gulf of Mexico by the beginning of next week.  Some slow development 
of this system is possible thereafter as it moves westward and 
approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of 
next week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Bucci

000
AXNT20 KNHC 161734
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Aug 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is approaching the Cabo Verde Islands
along 22W, from 17N southward, moving W at 15 kt. 

The axis of a tropical wave is just off the coast of Africa near 
17W from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 17N E of 24W.
This system is forecast to move toward the west-northwest, with 
an area of low pressure forming in a day or two just west of the 
Cabo Verde Islands. Further development of the low is possible 
over the weekend before environmental conditions become 
unfavorable early next week.

An axis of a tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 40W,
from 18N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Low pressure has developed
in association with this wave where it interacts with the monsoon
trough. This 1009 mb low pressure is now centered behind the wave
axis, near 11N34W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 33W and 43W.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this elongated low, and a tropical depression may form during
the next several days while the system moves WNW at 10 to 15 kt in
the central Tropical Atlantic.

The axis of a tropical wave is in the E Caribbean near 64W, from 
18N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Convection previously associated
with this wave has generally diminished today.

The axis of a tropical wave is moving across Central America near
88W, from the Gulf of Honduras southward into the east Pacific, 
moving W at 15 kt. Convection with this wave is now confined W of
the area over Central America and the eastern Pacific. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes near coastal Dakar near 15N17W to 14N25W
to 12N42W to 12N49W. The ITCZ continues from 12N49W to 11N61W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N 
between 24W and 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The diurnal surface trough moving west through the Bay of Campeche
has generally diminished today, but scattered moderate convection
lingers over the western Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a stationary
front is noted just inland of the northern Gulf coast, with a weak
pre-frontal trough noted along 29N from offshore the Florida
Panhandle to the offshore Texas. Scattered moderate convection
exists within about 60 nm either side of the trough. Despite these
features, weak high pressure dominates the basin, providing light
and variable winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft.

For the forecast, the surface trough will continue to support 
isolated thunderstorms across the N Gulf today and tonight. A 
surface ridge over the central Gulf will support mostly gentle to 
moderate winds and slight seas across the basin through Sun. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is noted near the Windward Islands,
otherwise dry conditions prevail. Fresh trades are noted in the
central Caribbean, with moderate winds elsewhere, except gentle
winds in the NW basin and S of the eastearn extension of the East
Pacific monsoon trough along 10N in the far SW Caribbean. Seas are
5 to 7 ft in the central Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere,
lesser in the lee of Cuba.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong tradewinds will prevail 
across the central Caribbean today. The pressure gradient between
the Bermuda High and the Colombian Low will loosen tonight, 
resulting in a slight decrease in winds over the area for the next
few days. Gentle to moderate trades and seas will prevail 
elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The dominating feature in the basin is the Bermuda to Azores
ridge. This is leading to mainly gentle E winds N of 25N, with the
gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ and monsoon trough leading
to moderate to fresh trades S of 25N. Some moderate to fresh SW
winds are occuring N of the Bahamas, as an eastward moving front
along the Mid-Atlantic U.S. coast passes N of the waters.
Scattered moderate convection is also noted in this region. Some 
fresh to locally strong winds have developed within about 100 nm 
of the center of a 1009 mb low pressure to the SW of the Cabo 
Verde Islands, that is depicted in more detail in the tropical 
waves section above. Other convection associated with the monsoon 
trough and tropical waves is also described in the section above.
Seas across the basin are mainly 5 to 8 ft, with areas NW of a
31N60W to Turks and Caicos line having somewhat lower seas of 3 to
5 ft. 

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to locally strong tradewinds 
will pulse off Hispaniola each evening through the weekend. Fresh 
tradewinds will develop south of 25N starting Thu and diminishing 
again on Sat. A cold front will approach the NW waters then stall,
but fresh SW winds can be expected Thu through Fri morning in the
NW waters. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere.

$$
KONARIK