..MORNING UPDATE ON INVEST 93L AUG 26, 2023..

 

93L WILL LINGER NEAR THE YUCATAN AND WESTERN CUBA AS IT WAITS FOR A FRONT TO DROP IN AND PULL IT NORTHWARD.  ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND THE ICON GERMAN MODEL WHICH DID WELL WITH IAN SAYS ANYWHERE BETWEEN TAMPA AND SARASOTA.  

THE GFS IS DOING THE SAME THING IT DID WITH IAN LAST YEAR LEFT OF THE TRACK OF ALL THE OTHERS.  SO THERE ARE UNCERTANTIES IN THE FORECAST BUT SO FAR ITS LOOKING LIKE BIG BEND TO SARASOTA.  

THAT JUST ME SAYING THIS AND IT IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST SO WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

RTW

 

  000

ABNT20 KNHC 261158
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Franklin, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of 
organization in association with an area of low pressure located 
near the Yucatan Channel.  Environmental conditions appear conducive 
for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form within the next day or two while it moves generally 
northward over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  Interests in the 
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, and Florida should 
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with 
a broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles 
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  Environmental 
conditions could become more conducive for development over the 
next few days, and a tropical depression could form early next week 
while the system moves generally northwestward over the central 
subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa 
early next week. Some slow development of this system is possible 
during the latter part of next week while the system moves westward 
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Craig Setzer
@CraigSetzer
For those who have been through many hurricane seasons, you know the drill. But for the new folks, here's some basic guidelines. We talk about a tropical threat in terms of timelines, not distance in miles away. We plan according to that timeline if we are in the threat area. At any point along the way, we can pause our preps, but we never want to play catch-up.
For Fla west coast/panhandle we are getting our minds around starting preps Sunday. It's easier to physically prepare if we already accept we may need to prepare.