STORM INVESTIGATION 93L IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN NOW HAS A MEDIUM 40% CHANCE FOR FORMATION WITHIN 48 HOURS AND A HIGH 80% FORMATION CHANCE WITHIN 7 DAYS.
INTEREST IN THE YUCATAN, WESTERN CUBA, AND FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.
As this system tracks north, it will enhance showers and storms over Florida Monday through Wednesday. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND A SLIGHT RISK FROM SARASOTA NORTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND IN THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. The rest of the state will have a marginal risk.
LATEST SATELITE IMAGE SHOWS THAT 93L IS GRADUALLY FORMING SOUTHWST OF THE WEST TIP OF CUBA. HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER WESTERN CUBA AND NORTHEAST YUCATAN THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
12z Landfall for each models, GFS being the further west like last it was with IAN.
FYI PUERTO RICO IS GETTING SOME RAIN BANDS FROM FRANKLIN AS IT BECAME STATIONARY AND THE STORMS ARE BEING SHOVED SOUTH OVER NORTHERN PUERTO RICO. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AS STRONG STORMS ARE MOVING IN ALONG THE WEST AND NORTH COAST OF THE ISLAND. HEAVY RAINS GUSTY WINDS WITH THESE CELLS ARE POSSIBLE. YOU CAN'T FLASH FLOODING IF THESE BANDS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA.
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