..O200 PM EDT TROPICAL UPDATE AUG 2023..

 

NHC has up the seven day formation chance for the Caribbean system from 50% to 60%.  Read NHC updates.

207 
ABNT20 KNHC 241756
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Franklin, located to the east of the Turks and Caicos 
Islands. 

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Emily):
A trough of low pressure located more than 1000 miles east-southeast 
of Bermuda (the remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily) is 
producing an elongated area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Recently received satellite wind data suggests that 
the system has lost organization from yesterday, but a tropical 
depression or storm could still form as it moves northward over the 
subtropical central Atlantic. By this weekend, the system is 
expected to merge with a frontal boundary north of the Gulf 
Stream. For additional information on this system, including gale 
warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with 
an area of low pressure located midway between the Cabo Verde 
Islands and the northern Lesser Antilles. While environmental 
conditions are marginal for additional development, they could 
become more conducive in a few days. A tropical depression could 
form by early next week while the system moves west-northwestward to 
northwestward into the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure centered over Central America is 
forecast to move into northwestern Caribbean Sea by this weekend. 
Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter into 
early next week, and a tropical depression could form while it moves 
slowly northward, entering the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin/Delgado