..FRANKLIN UPDATE AND THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 24, 2023..

 

...FRANKLIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...

11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 24 Location: 22.2°N 69.9°W Moving: NE at 7 mph Min pressure: 998 mb Max sustained: 60 mph

000
ABNT20 KNHC 241146
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Franklin, located to the east of the Turks and Caicos 
Islands. 

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Emily):
An area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles east-southeast 
of Bermuda (the remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily) continues 
to produce a large but elongated area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are generally conducive for 
development today, and this system is likely to regenerate into a 
tropical storm over the next couple of days as the system moves 
northward over the subtropical central Atlantic. By this weekend, 
the system is anticipated to merge with a frontal boundary north of 
the Gulf Stream. For additional information on this system, 
including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the 
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with 
an area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the 
Cabo Verde Islands. Despite marginal environmental conditions, slow 
development is possible and a tropical depression could form by 
early next week while the system moves west-northwestward to 
northwestward into the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure, originating along the East Pacific 
coast of Central America, is forecast to move into northwestern 
Caribbean Sea by this weekend. Some gradual development of this 
system is possible thereafter into early next week, and a tropical 
depression could form while it moves slowly northward, entering the 
eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin

Ensemble models continue to show development in the Caribbean so 

track to so called system north others across Florida.

Euro Model

00z EURO MODEL

00Zz CANADIAN MODEL

00z GFS MODEL (DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE CARIBBEAN)

00z ICON GERMAN MODEL ON BOARD WITH EURO AND CANADIAN MODEL 

HINTING THAT A STORM WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN.

Upper low in the Bay of Campeche is producing upper level shear over the northwest Caribbean at this time.  The southern Caribbean has a better chance for development as conditions are favorable there.

WRN Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador