..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 23, 2023..

 

Franklin produced very heavy rainfall and tropical storm-force winds this morning. Life-threatening flash floods and mud slides are expected in Dominica today and on Thursday as Franklin slowly tracks north. See the latest on Franklin from the National Hurricane Center.

...FRANKLIN'S CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...FLOODING RAINS DRENCHING HISPANIOLA...

11:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 Location: 18.9°N 70.9°W Moving: N at 13 mph Min pressure: 1004 mb Max sustained: 40 mph

I am monitoring the West Caribbean and Southern Caribbean for low-pressure development. Ensemble models hint that a storm could track north-northeast toward the northeast Gulf of Mexico. This will be due to a pattern change. This I will monitor closely.

also monitoring waves coming off the coast of Africa, for tropical cyclone development.

RTW

Remnants of Emily tried to make a come back over night but this morning it seems to have encountered wind shear again.  Night time is the best time for these system to redevelop as winds decrease a bit. 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 231146
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Franklin, located near the southern coast of the Dominican 
Republic.  The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on 
Tropical Depression Harold, located inland over northern Mexico.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL07):
An area of low pressure centered several hundred miles east- 
northeast of the Leeward Islands (the remnants of former Tropical 
Storm Emily) continues to produce a large area of disorganized 
showers and  thunderstorms.  Upper-level winds are forecast to 
become more conducive for development in a day or so, and this 
system is likely to regenerate into a tropical depression or 
tropical storm late this week or this weekend when the system moves 
northward over the subtropical central Atlantic. For additional 
information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with 
a tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde 
Islands.  Environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable 
for some slow development through early next week while the system 
moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the central 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&

Information on Tropical Depression Harold can be found in Public 
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center, under AWIPS 
header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at 
www.hurricanes.gov.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin

WRN Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador