Idalia will be blocked by high pressure as Franklin tracks east-northeast for a bit, causing the storm to meander in the Atlantic. EURO brings the low back to the Northwest off the Northeast coast. GFS takes Idalia near Bermuda, lingers for a day or so, then tracks east-northeast as Franklin tracks east.
RTW
I will be monitoring the Atlantic from September 6 through September 19, as the ensemble models show possible storm tracking west-northwest.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Franklin, located a couple of hundred miles north-northeast of Bermuda, on Tropical Storm Idalia, located near the coast of North Carolina, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Jose, located several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94): Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in association with an area of low pressure located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. 2. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gert): A weak but well-defined area of low pressure located several hundred miles north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. This system has a short window for further development during the next day or so while it drifts northeastward or eastward before upper-level winds become increasingly unfavorable by the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Reinhart
000 AXNT20 KNHC 311050 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Aug 31 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Idalia is centered near 33.6N 78.0W at 31/0900 UTC or 40 nm SSW of Wilmington North Carolina, moving ENE at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Idalia will continue moving ENE this morning. The 12 ft seas still extend off the coast of Florida, within 180 nm in the SW quadrant and 220 nm in the SE quadrant. An E to SE motion is forecast to begin later today and continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Idalia will just offshore of the coast of North Carolina today. Idalia will then move over the western Atlantic into the weekend. Little change in strength is expected today, but some gradual weakening could occur Friday and Saturday. Hurricane Franklin is centered near 34.9N 63.2W at 31/0900 UTC or 170 nm NNE of Bermuda, moving ENE at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Franklin will generally move ENE to NE over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin should continue moving away from Bermuda. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days. Rough seas associated with the outer periphery of Franklin south of 31N will improve by Fri morning. Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Jose is centered near 28.8N 52.2W at 31/0900 UTC or 680 nm ESE of Bermuda, moving N at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 27N to 30N between 49W and 53W. Seas range 8 to 9 ft. Jose will continue moving N with an increase in forward speed for the next day or so. Little change in strength is forecast over the next day or so, with the small system forecast to be absorbed by Franklin by the weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for the latest on Franklin, Idalia and Jose. For NHC Forecasts/Advisories and Public Advisories on these systems, see www.hurricanes.gov Invest AL94 in the eastern Atlantic: An area of low pressure located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce showers and thunderstorms that are gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours and 7 days. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W from 21N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 20N between 21W and 30W. This wave is associated with AL94 discussed in the Special Features section. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W from 18N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 90 nm E of the wave from 10N to 15N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W from 18N southward, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 13N33W to 09N48W. The ITCZ continues from 09N48W to 10N54W. Outside of the convection associated with tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 21N between the coast of Africa to 21W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 32W and 39W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... As Tropical Storm Idalia continues moving farther away from the basin, winds are moderate to locally fresh over the eastern Gulf with seas 5-6 ft. Over the central and western Gulf, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail with slight seas. Isolated thunderstorms are noted across most of the basin from 21N to 30N and E of 95W. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Idalia continues to pull farther east away from the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, high pressure will continue to build over the Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds will persist through early next week with slight seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section for details on a tropical wave in the central Caribbean. An area of numerous strong thunderstorms is noted off the Yucatan Peninsula and the Gulf of Honduras, from 16N to 22N between 83W to 89W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted in the SW Caribbean along the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough, S of 12N between 75W and 84W. Strong winds still continue in the south- central basin near the Gulf of Venezuela, with fresh trade winds noted across the central Caribbean. Moderate seas are noted in this area. Gentle to moderate winds prevail in the NW Caribbean outside of the strong thunderstorms noted earlier. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail in the eastern basin. Slight to moderate seas are noted in the NW and eastern Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will pulse in the central Caribbean through Fri night with moderate seas. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate winds will prevail in the western Caribbean with moderate to fresh winds in the eastern Caribbean. Trades will weaken this weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes and continue through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Hurricane Franklin, Tropical Storm Idalia, Tropical Storm Jose, and Invest AL94. Outside of the four systems, the remnants of Gert (AL94) is producing scattered moderate convection from 24N to 29N between 55W and 63W. Fresh winds are still likely around this system. Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the sensible weather north of 20N and east of 50W. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the open waters, along with seas of 4-7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Idalia will move to 34.0N 75.1W this afternoon, 33.5N 71.7W Fri morning, 32.4N 69.1W Fri afternoon, 31.5N 68.0W Sat morning, 31.2N 67.5W Sat afternoon, and 31.4N 66.6W Sun morning. Idalia will change little in intensity as it moves near 33.1N 63.8W by early Mon. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh winds and rough seas associated with outer southern periphery of Franklin will impact the northern waters through tonight. $$ AReinhart
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