..A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR A PORTION OF FLORIDA TODAY..

 

Good morning!  Yesterday there was a General Thunderstorm outlook for today but over night SPC upgraded the outlook to a Marginal risk for Tuesday late evening.  I was reviewing the HRRR reflectivity model and it does not show much for today but I will monitor since SPC calls for a Marginal risk.

Tomorrow there is also a Marginal risk and the HRRR model does show strong storms moving over Miami Dade and Broward on Wednesday overnight between 300am and 400am.  

Water vapor satellite with Lightning shows plenty of energy with the storms that are over the Gulf.  That will be gradually tracking east toward Florida today and over night.  Stay tuned to the Storm Prediction Center for the latest severe storm outlooks.

RTW

DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK (MARGINAL RISK)

MARGINAL

212,027

26,614,333

New Orleans, LA...Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...

DAY 1 TORNADO PROBABILITY (2%)

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

2 %

38,096

15,287,934

Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Orlando, FL...

DAY 1 HAIL PROBABILITY (5%)

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

5 %

174,136

11,332,706

New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, MS...

DAY 1 DAMAGING WINDS PROBABILITY (5%)

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

5 %

211,676

26,596,005

New Orleans, LA...Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...

HRRR MODEL SHOWS STORMS TRACKING EAST OVER FLORIDA.  THE MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH FOR TODAY THOUGH.  HOWEVER SPC CALLS FOR STORMS TODAY AS WELL AS TOMORROW.

THERE SEEMS TO BE PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THESE STORMS OVER THE GULF.  WHITE AND BLUE IS THE LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AHEAD AOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL