..ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK FOR A PORTION OF FLORIDA TODAY WEDNESDAY MARCH 6 2024..

 

SPC has another Marginal risk area for a portion of Florida.  Satellite shows some storms developing over the left over from this mornings system.  So far models are not showing wide spread storms, but scattered isolated storms and some could be strong may be severe.

RTW

DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK (MARGINAL RISK)

Mesoscale Discussion 0194

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1201 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024

   Areas affected...central/southern Florida Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 061801Z - 062000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase over the
   next couple of hours. Isolated strong storms may produce hail near a
   half inch to 1 inch in diameter and gusty winds. A watch is not
   currently expected.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms along the southwest coast of the FL
   Peninsula have increased in intensity over the past 30 minutes or
   so. This activity is moving east along a weak differential heating
   zone created by early clouds and morning showers, and within a zone
   of weak low-level convergence. Despite scattered clouds across the
   central/southern Peninsula, dewpoints mostly in the upper 60s to
   near 70 F and modest midlevel lapse rates has allowed MLCAPE values
   to increase to around 1000-1500 J/kg. A 17z RAOB from MFL does
   indicated some weak inhibition in the 500-1500 m layer, though ample
   elevated instability is noted. Additional heating increasing ascent
   through the afternoon should largely mitigate inhibition.

   Vertical shear will remain somewhat marginal, around 25-35 kt, but
   sufficient for at least transient/short-lived strong/organized
   updrafts. Hail approaching 1 inch in diameter and gusty winds will
   be the main hazards with isolated thunderstorm activity through
   23-00z. Low-level winds are fairly weak, especially through 1 km.
   However, some favorable curvature to low-level hodograph (per 17z
   MFL RAOB and region radar VWPs) and effective SRH around 100 m2/s2
   amid a very moist low-level airmass could support a brief/weak
   spin-up near the southeast coast where better low-level convergence
   is noted. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain marginal
   and sporadic, and a watch is not expected at this time.