..TROPICAL OUTLOOK MAY 30, 2024..

 

Not much to talk about it remains quiet for now.  NHC discussion below for more detailed info.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301133
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

----------------------------------------------------------

Spanish Version

459 
ACCA62 KNHC 301134
TWOSAT

Perspectiva de Tiempo Tropical
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
800 AM EDT jueves 30 de mayo de 2024

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar del Caribe y el Golfo de México:

No se espera la formación de ciclones tropicales durante los
próximos 7 días.

$$
Pronosticador Bucci

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión
del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es
siempre la versión autorizada. ***

000
AXNT20 KNHC 301107
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu May 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 20W/21W 
from 03N to 14N. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm east and 
180 nm west of the wave from 07N to 08N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W/38W from 
02N to 10N, moving westward 15-20 kt. Broken to overcast 
multilayer clouds along with clusters of moderate convection are 
from 03N to 08N between 32W and the wave, and from 03N to 10N 
between the wave and 40W.

A tropical wave has recently entered the far southeastern 
Caribbean Sea, with its axis along 62W and south of 14N. It is 
moving westward at 15 kt. Broken to overcast multilayer clouds 
with embedded scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are within
120 nm west of the wave from 10N to 12N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W/87W south of 21N
to inland Honduras and northwest Nicaragua. It is moving westward
at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are 
west of the wave over western Nicaragua and southeastern
Guatemala. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W and extends to 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 
06N22W to 03N35W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm 
north of the ITCZ between 24W-26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A north-to-south oriented surface trough is analyzed from 
northeast Florida southwestward to just north of western Cuba. 
No significant weather is occurring with this feature. 
Otherwise, weak high pressure is over the region as a warm front 
is analyzed from extreme southwestern Louisiana to inland 
central Texas. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection 
is seen from 28N to 31N between 89W-92W.

Slight to moderate seas are over the western half of the area. 
Slight seas are over the eastern half of the area. Fresh northeast
to east winds are over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to 
moderate southeast winds are elsewhere west of 88W, while light to
gentle winds are east of 88W.

Hazy conditions, that are due to agricultural fires in Mexico and
in Central America, are persisting in most of the western half of
the Gulf of Mexico. 

For the forecast, relatively weak surface ridging will continue 
across the area into early next week. As a result, winds will 
pulse moderate to fresh during the evenings through the weekend. 
Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse near the northern and 
western portions of the Yucatan peninsula during the late 
afternoons and at night through Sun. Haze west of 90W due to 
agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue 
for at least the next couple of days reducing visibility at times.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The southern part of broad upper-level troughing reaches 
southward to the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A series of upper- 
level impulses are passing through the base of the upper trough. 
Southwesterly flow aloft across the base of the upper trough 
continues to transport abundant tropical moisture from the 
southwestern Caribbean to sections of the northwestern and north-
central Caribbean Sea, and to across the southern Atlantic 
waters between 45W and 76W. The atmospheric environment will 
remain very unstable and conducive for additional heavy rainfall 
to affect some areas of the Greater Antilles. Numerous moderate 
to strong convection is noted from 11N to 15N west of 80W to 
inland the eastern section of Nicaragua and inland northern 
Costa Rica. This activity is likely to produce locally heavy 
rainfall, gusty winds and at the same time be accompanied by 
frequent lightning. Please refer to bulletins and forecasts from 
your local weather office for the latest information on this 
activity.

An area of increasing numerous moderate to strong convection is 
confined to south of 13N between the coast of NW Colombia and 
79W. This activity is exhibiting frequent lightning, and is along 
and north of the eastern portion of the E Pacific monsoon trough 
that extends from northern Panama to inland Colombia near 10N73W.

Overnight scatterometer data shows fresh to strong trade winds 
from about 12N to 15N between 70W and 80W. Moderate to fresh
trade winds are elsewhere across the basin, except for light 
to gentle winds over the northwestern and north-central sections.
Latest altimeter data passes indicate slight seas north of 15N 
and west of 80W. Moderate seas are over the rest of the basin.

Hazy conditions continue to affect the Gulf of Honduras due
to persistent agricultural fires in Central America. The haze
may be reducing the visibility to around 3 nm at times, 
especially along the northern coast of Honduras and the Bay 
Islands. 

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between high 
pressure north of the area and low pressure near Colombia will 
maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central 
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through Fri night. Winds will 
become moderate to fresh Thu through Fri as the pressure gradient 
slackens some. The pressure gradient will increase Fri night 
behind a tropical wave that is currently in the far southeastern 
part of the Caribbean leading to fresh to strong trade winds 
across the central basin through early Mon. The tropical wave 
along 86W/87W will move inland the Yucatan Peninsula and northern
Central America today. Smoke from agricultural fires over Central
America is causing reduced visibilities over portions of the Gulf
of Honduras. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed from 31N32W to 29N52W and 
southwestward to near Puerto Rico and to the eastern Caribbean 
near 15N67W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 60 to 
120 nm south of the trough between 30W-49W. Broken to overcast 
multilayer cloud, with embedded scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are noted from 17N to 25N between 50W and 58W, also 
from 18N to 22N between 58W and 68W and from 19N to 25N between 
42W and 50W. Weak high pressure is present generally elsewhere 
across the basin. 

Overnight scatterometer data depicts fresh trade winds from 07N 
to 19N between 30W and 61W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are
from 14N to 21N east of 26W. Moderate or weaker winds are 
elsewhere over the basin. Pockets of moderate seas are from 08N 
to 20N between 35W and 61W and from 14N to 21N between 17W and 
26W.

For the forecast, relatively weak surface ridging over the region
is allowing for moderate or lighter winds to exist over the 
forecast waters. A cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. 
coast today, move across the western half of the area through Fri 
night, and across the remainder of the forecast waters through 
late Mon. High pressure building in behind the front will tighten 
the pressure gradient across the region, bringing moderate to 
fresh winds across waters north of 20N. Moderate seas can also be 
expected with these winds. Conditions will slightly improve by 
early next week north of 27N. 

$$
Aguirre