..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JUNE 20, 2024..

 

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems: 
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Alberto, located inland over northeastern Mexico. 

1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
A small area of low pressure located about 150 miles northeast of 
the northernmost Bahamas continues to produce disorganized shower 
and thunderstorm activity.  While environmental conditions are only 
marginally conducive due to nearby dry air, further development of 
this system could lead to the development of a tropical depression 
while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and 
approaches the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast 
early on Friday.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 
enroute to investigate this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern 
Mexico and northern Central America on Friday.  Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for gradual development after this 
system moves over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and a tropical 
depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this 
weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


Forecaster Berg