..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JUNE 21, 2024..

 

Other than these two system, elsewhere in the tropics all remains quiet for now!

RTW

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
A small area of showers and thunderstorms persists with a low 
pressure system located around 150 miles east-southeast of 
Jacksonville, Florida. An Air Force Reserve aircraft is currently 
investigating the system to determine if the low has a well-defined 
surface circulation. Environmental conditions remain marginally 
conducive for some additional development, and this system could 
become a short-lived tropical depression as the low moves 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is expected to reach 
the coast of northeastern Florida or Georgia by tonight, and 
interests there should monitor its progress. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern 
Mexico later today.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
gradual development after this system moves over the Bay of Campeche 
tonight, and a tropical depression could form over the southwestern 
Gulf of Mexico this weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward 
or northwestward. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should 
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.


Forecaster Hagen/Berg