..TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 24, 2024..

 

The tropics remain quiet for now; however, after the 4th of July, I will have to monitor the eastern Caribbean as the ensemble models show possible development as waves near the Lesser Antilles enter the east Caribbean.

RTW

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

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861 
ACCA62 KNHC 241137
TWOSAT

Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo en el Trópico
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
800 AM EDT lunes 24 de junio de 2024

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de México:

No se espera la formación de ciclones tropicales durante los
próximos 7 días.

$$
Pronosticador Hagen/Pasch

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787 
AXNT20 KNHC 241016
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jun 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W, south of 15N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along 
the wave's axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has is along 45W, south of 13N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along 
the wave's axis.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 58W, south of 
20N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is  
noted along the wave's axis, from 10N-14N. 

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W, south of 16N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted at
this time.

A western Caribbean/EPAC tropical wave is along 87W, south of 
18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are within 120 nm W of the wave axis south of 14N, 
affecting the Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 12N17W and continues southwestward to 08N26W. The 
ITCZ extends from 08N26W to 08N58W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is present from 02N to 12N and east of
24W and from 06N to 12N and between 47W and 57W. Lighter activity
prevails along the ITCZ between 26W-42W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The basin is under generally dry conditions. Moderate to fresh 
easterly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are occurring in the western 
Gulf. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas 
prevail across the area W of 90W, while gentle winds and slight 
seas prevail E of 90W. Similar conditions are expected through the
week, as a weak high pressure builds over the E central Gulf Tue 
through Thu.  

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture continue to
enhance the showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Greater
Antilles and surrounding waters. Similar convection is noted off
NW Colombia, off eastern Yucatan and NE Caribbean, also affecting
the Leeward Islands. An expansive subtropical ridge centered
between Bermuda and the Azores extends southwestward into the
Caribbean Sea. The ridge is forcing fresh to strong easterly 
winds in the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 
4-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are 
prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, surface ridging prevails across the Atlantic 
basin. With this, moderate to fresh trade winds will continue 
across the eastern and central Caribbean through tonight, pulsing 
to strong speeds at night near the coast over the south-central 
basin. Moderate trade winds and moderate seas are will prevail 
across the western basin through the week, except for winds 
pulsing to strong speeds at night in the Gulf of Honduras through 
this morning. Fresh to strong trades will accompany a tropical 
wave moving across the eastern basin Tue through early Wed and 
across the central basin Wed through Thu. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Divergence aloft and abundant tropical moisture result in
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms impacting the 
Bahamas and surrounding waters. In the remainder of the tropical 
Atlantic, Saharan dust and subsidence allow for drier conditions. 

An expansive subtropical ridge is centered between Bermuda and 
the Azores. Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft 
are occurring north of 30N and west of 75W. The pressure gradient
between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep 
tropics sustain fresh to strong NE-E winds south of 25N and 
between 30W and 60W. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft, with the 
highest seas occurring near 11N47W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and
seas of 5-8 ft are present east of 30W. Elsewhere in the basin, 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh southerly winds and moderate 
seas will prevail across the waters N of 30N and W of 75W through 
today. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will prevail elsewhere 
across the region through Wed, becoming SE to S winds W of 65W. 
High pressure north of the region will build SW into the NW 
Bahamas tonight through Tue, then shift NE and weaken through Thu.
Fresh to strong winds across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles 
will prevail through Tue associated with the passage of a tropical
wave.

$$
ERA