..TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 25, 2024..

 

Been monitoring models and the wave that NHC is monitoring that will more than likely track over Central America and its not a concern for the U.S.  I will monitor it, but the main area that I will be watching is the northern Leeward Islands for possible development the first week of July. 

The Euro models shows a weak storm system moving through the northern Leeward and turning north over Puerto Rico.  Its still a week away so forecast will change from run to run, so all I can do is monitor for now.

Now that we are entering into July it looks like we are beginning to see a gradual change in the trade winds from west to east.  This means more storms tracking into the Caribbean as these waves are not affected by upper level winds from the west. However, we are totally wind shear free, but some areas are more favorable than we have seen in past weeks. 

Ensemble models are also picking up on this change in the trade winds by hinting of possible development.  Once again these are forecast and all subject to change.

RTW

Sahara Dust

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea is 
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it moves 
quickly westward at around 25 mph.  Environmental conditions 
could support some gradual development once the wave reaches the 
western Caribbean Sea late this week, and some development is also 
possible over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

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195 
ACCA62 KNHC 251744
TWOSAT

Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo en el Trópico
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
200 PM EDT martes 25 de junio de 2024

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de México:

Caribe Oeste/Suroeste del Golfo de México: Una onda tropical
localizada sobre el sureste del Mar Caribe está produciendo
aguaceros desorganizados y tormentas eléctricas a medida que se
mueve rápidamente hacia el oeste a alrededor de 25 mph. Las
condiciones ambientales podrían apoyar algún desarrollo gradual una
vez que la ola alcance el oeste del Mar Caribe a fines de esta
semana, y también es posible algún desarrollo sobre el suroeste del
Golfo de México durante el fin de semana.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...baja...10 por ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...baja...20 por ciento.

$$
Pronosticador Hagen/Pasch

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714 
AXNT20 KNHC 251559
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jun 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been repositioned to near 24W, 
south of 15N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 06N-11N and between 22W-28W. 

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W, south of 18N, 
moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated 
strong convection prevails south of 15N between 61W-67W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W, south of 16N, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection prevails south of 13N between 78W-83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea 
Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 08N29W. The ITCZ 
extends from 08N29W to 06N58W. Scattered moderate convection is 
evident within 120 NM on either sides of the boundaries. The E North 
Pacific monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica eastward to a 1010 
mb low over NW Colombia. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection prevails south of 13N between 78W-83W.  

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak 1016 mb high pressure system centered near 26N87W dominates 
the basin, supporting gentle or weaker winds and only 1-3 ft seas. 
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the SW Gulf of 
Mexico, over the Yucatan Channel, and over the coastal waters of 
south Florida. 

For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through 
Fri supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas over the 
eastern half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds and slight to 
moderate seas across the western half of the basin. Looking ahead, 
wind and seas may increase over the SW Gulf during the upcoming 
weekend. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High north 
of the area and the 1010 mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh to strong 
trades across the E and central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate 
in the W Caribbean. Seas are 4-7 ft over the E and central Caribbean 
and 2-5 ft over the W Caribbean. As noted in the tropical wave 
section, Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection prevails 
south of 13N between 78W-83W as well as south of 15N between 61W-67W.

For the forecast, environmental conditions appear conducive for slow 
development of the tropical wave currently at 65W, once the wave 
reaches the western Caribbean late this week. Fresh to strong winds 
and moderate seas will accompany this wave across the eastern and 
central Caribbean through Thu. Winds and seas could further increase 
across the NW Caribbean toward the end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A 1026 mb Bermuda-Azores High centered at 31N42W has surface ridging 
associated with it extending west-southwestward to 28N80W and east-
northeastward north of our waters. The moderate pressure gradient 
between the ridging and the ITCZ/monsoon trough is causing generally 
moderate to fresh trades south of 27N. Seas are 8-10 ft just east of 
the Lesser Antilles, 5-7 ft elsewhere south of 27N, and 3-5 ft north 
of 27N. A surface trough is located near the Bahamas from 24N74W to 
27N70W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 24N-28N 
between 69W-78W. A Saharan Air Layer with substantial dry, dusty air 
is present from 10N-20N east of 55W as seen in the Geocolor and 
total precipitable water satellite imagery.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will dominate the 
area during the forecast period producing a gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic flow with moderate seas E of 75W and NE of the Bahamas. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas will prevail. 

$$
Landsea/Rubio