..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE

 

    000

ABNT20 KNHC 171133
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a broad 
area of low pressure is forming over the Bay of Campeche. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional gradual 
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely 
to form by midweek while it moves slowly westward or 
west-northwestward toward the western Gulf coast. 

Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are 
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and 
these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash 
flooding.  Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over 
portions of the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico by the 
middle of the week.  In addition, gale warnings have been issued for 
portions of the Gulf of Mexico, and more information on those 
warnings is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National 
Weather Service.  Interests along the western and northwestern Gulf 
coasts should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the 
system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located several hundred 
miles east of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough and 
an upper-level area of low pressure.  Environmental conditions 
could be conducive for some development of this system during the 
next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward.  The 
system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeast United 
States on Thursday or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Beven