..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE 0349 PM JUNE 17, 2024..

 

1. The Bay of Campeche storm system, the Central American Gyre 91L, is producing heavy rains and storms over the north Yucatan peninsula, with the potential for deadly flash floods and mudslides. 

 

As this storm system crosses the BOC and heads toward north Mexico and southern Texas, gusty winds and heavy rain will spread over Texas and Mexico, with additional potential for flash flooding. 

 

NHC is giving this system an equal chance for development—70% within 48 hours and seven days. 

 

Gale winds will spread across the west as this system moves toward the coast. Most of the stronger wind gusts seem to be north of the center.

 

2. An upper-level low pressure and a decaying frontal boundary/surface trough east of the Bahamas are forecast to track west or northwest toward the southeast U.S. So far, models are not showing anything significant, but they will be monitored.

 

NHC is giving this system a 10/30% formation chance within 48 hours and seven days.

 

For a more complete update, check out the out the NHC tropical update below.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171742
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Satellite and surface observations indicate that a broad area of 
low pressure is located over the Bay of Campeche with winds of 
35-40 mph occurring in an area well to the northeast of the center 
over the southern Gulf of Mexico.  Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression or 
tropical storm is likely to form by midweek while the low moves 
slowly west-northwestward toward the western Gulf coast. 

Regardless of development, several more days of heavy rainfall are 
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and 
these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash 
flooding.  Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over 
portions of Texas and Louisiana by the middle of the week.  In 
addition, gale warnings have been issued for portions of the Gulf of 
Mexico, and more information on those warnings is available in High 
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.  Interests 
along the western and northwestern Gulf coasts should monitor the 
progress of this system, as tropical storm watches and warnings may 
be required for portions of this area later this afternoon or 
tonight.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 
currently en route to investigate the system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located several hundred 
miles east of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough and 
an upper-level area of low pressure.  Environmental conditions 
could be conducive for some development of this system during the 
next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward.  The 
system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeast United 
States on Thursday or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$ 

Forecaster Beven

 

Excessive rainfall outlook Moderate Risk for Texas through Thursday

All the heavy moisture is over the Gulf in association with this storm system.

Upper level condition are not favorable in the Gulf.  

Small area east of the Bahamas is marginally favorable .

Increasing shear seen below in the Gulf at this present time.  Decreasing shear over the Atlantic.