..TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 8, 2024..

 

I continue to see the potential for heavy rains and flooding and the potential for strong thunderstorms with gusty winds and maybe severe storms over South Florida on both coasts. Models are not in agreement and bit of confusion with what is to develop or not. Regardless of development, the potential for heavy rains from deep tropical moisture rising north from the Caribbean seems to be increasing.

 

I posted below precipitation models and wind gust models for you to see. I will continue to monitor the Central American Gyre for this possible spin-up of this low pressure into next week. So far, NHC says no tropical cyclone formation for the next 7 days. So I will continue to monitor the NHC website for the latest on the tropics.

RTW

Total Precipitable Water

Wind gust model below 30-50 mph gust in some areas.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg

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445 
ACCA62 KNHC 082307
TWOSAT

Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo en el Trópico
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
800 PM EDT sábado 8 de junio de 2024

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar del Caribe y el Golfo de México:

No se espera la formación de ciclones tropicales durante los
próximos 7 días.

$$
Pronosticador Hagen/Berg

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 082320
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jun 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean and SW N Atlantic: Abundant 
tropical moisture surging northeastward combined with a diffluent
pattern aloft continues to generate a large area of scattered 
heavy showers and thunderstorms across the Bahamas and the NW 
Caribbean, including Cuba, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands and 
regional waters. Dangerous lightning, strong gusty winds, rough
seas and low visibility are likely ongoing in these regions. 
Currently, numerous showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are 
affecting most of the Bahamas, and the Caribbean waters from 18N
to 20N between 76W and 87W. The soils remain saturated over the 
Greater Antilles, therefore, it is possible that more heavy rain 
may lead to flash flooding and mudslides, especially in 
mountainous terrain. Mariners should exercise caution as these 
conditions are forecast to continue through the weekend. Please, 
refer to bulletins and forecasts from the local weather forecast 
offices for detailed information.

Looking ahead, weather conditions are expected to favor additional
heavy rainfall next week, with the heaviest rains likely impacting
western Cuba and Florida.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W from 11N southward, moving
west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is mainly ahead
of the wave axis from 04N to 10N between 42W and 47W.

A tropical wave is approaching the Windward Islands. Its axis is
along 60W, from 14N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave
appears to enhance convection over Guyana and eastern Venezuela 
as well as over the southern Windward Islands. 

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W, from 14N southward, moving
west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted near the wave axis over Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 06N22W. The ITCZ then 
extends from 06N22W to 07N45W to 09N57W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection
is noted from 02N to 06N between 25W and 34W, and from 08N to 
10N between 48W and 53W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure of 1015 mb located over the NE Gulf dominates
the basin while a stationary front is along the Florida Panhandle.
A broad area of low pressure is observed over the Yucatan Peninsula
and SE Mexico where scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is occurring. Under this weather pattern, mainly light to gentle
winds prevail across most of the Gulf waters with seas of 2 to 4
ft. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly gentle
to moderate winds the next several days. Winds will pulse to fresh
speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula during the late afternoon and evening
hours. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over Central America
and Mexico will continue for at least the next couple of days, reducing
visibility to around 3 nm at times, mainly over the SW Gulf. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information about heavy
rainfall in the NW Caribbean. 

The pressure gradient between subtropical Atlantic high pressure
and lower pressure over Colombia and Venezuela is supporting fresh
to locally strong trades in the central Caribbean, including the
Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 5 to 8 ft within these winds based 
on altimeter data. In the eastern and western Caribbean, mostly 
moderate trade winds are seen per satellite derived wind data, 
except in the Gulf of Honduras, and in the SW Caribbean S of 11N
where winds are light and variable. Seas are 3 to 5 ft elsewhere
N of 11N and E of 80W, and N of 18N W of 80W. Seas in the 1 to 3
ft range are noted across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, a mid to upper level trough will support showers 
and thunderstorms through the weekend across the NW Caribbean, 
including Cuba and the Windward Passage. A second upper level 
trough may extend this shower activity over the NW Caribbean 
through early next week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail 
across the central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast 
period, except locally strong winds pulsing tonight as well as 
Mon through Wed nights. Moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast 
for the NW Caribbean most of the forecast period. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on heavy
rainfall over the western Atlantic.

A persistent deep layer trough over Florida and the SE Gulf of
Mexico continues to support the development of numerous showers 
and thunderstorms over parts of south and central Florida as well
as over the Bahamas and surrounding waters, particularly S of 27N
and W of 65W. Winds and seas could be higher near tstms. A 
frontal boundary extends from 31N30W to 22N51W. A few showers 
are near the front. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area
is under the influence of 1022 mb high pressure located near 
30N50W. Mainly light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are 
noted N of 20N. Moderate trade winds dominate the tropical
Atlantic with seas in the 4 to 7 ft range.

For the forecast W of 55W, a deep layer trough will support showers 
and tstms over the Bahamas offshore waters through Sun. A weak 
frontal boundary over the far NW waters will lift north of the 
area Sun as high pressure builds back in across the region. 


$$
GR