Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW: ..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 1, 2024.. ..FLORIDA STAY ALERT AND READY!..

This vigorous tropical wave, now named INVEST 97L, has a 20% formation chance within 48 hours and a 60% chance for formation within 7 days. 97L continues on a westward path that the GFS American model has been forecasting all along. The once said outlier model seems to be right on so far, so this makes it some what of a problem for the west coast of Florida if some of these forecasts hold true.

The hurricane center SHIP intensity model shows a cat 2 off the Ft. Myers Naples area, and in fact other intensity models are also hinting at the same. So the entire state of Florida, especially along the west coast, should closely monitor and be ready to prepare if this system does strengthen.

The Gulf waters are nice and warm, and conditions will be favorable for tropical cyclone formation. I am not trying to alarm you; I just want those who live in Florida to be on alert. Fuel up and have your Hurricane game plan ready just in case.

EURO so far does not show development in the GULF, but since it was off with the forecast, I will go with what other models are suggesting for now. It's better to be ready than caught by surprise.

Stay informed with the National Hurricane Center updates.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 011135
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic and Eastern Gulf of Mexico:
A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, Puerto 
Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the adjacent waters of the 
southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean Sea. Development of 
this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of days 
while it moves west-northwestward over portions of the Greater 
Antilles. However, environmental conditions are forecast to be more 
conducive for development after the wave passes the Greater 
Antilles, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early 
next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or near the Florida 
Peninsula. Interests across the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and 
Florida should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

--------------------------------------------------------------------

447 
ACCA62 KNHC 011136
TWOSAT

Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo en el Trópico
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
800 AM EDT jueves 1 de agosto de 2024

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de México:

Suroeste del Atlántico y Este del Golfo de México: Una onda tropical
bien definida está produciendo una gran área de aguaceros y
tormentas eléctricas desorganizadas sobre La Española, Puerto Rico,
las Islas Vírgenes y las aguas adyacentes del Atlántico suroeste y
el noreste del Mar Caribe. El desarrollo de este sistema debe ser
lento durante los próximos dos días mientras se mueve hacia el
oeste-noroeste sobre porciones de las Grandes Antillas. Sin embargo,
se pronostica que las condiciones ambientales serán más propicias
para el desarrollo después de que la ola pase por las Grandes
Antillas, y podría formarse una depresión tropical este fin de
semana o a principios de la próxima semana sobre el Golfo de México
o cerca de la Península de Florida. Los intereses a través de las
Grandes Antillas, las Bahamas y Florida deben continuar monitoreando
el progreso de este sistema.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...baja...20 por ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...medio...60 por ciento.

$$
Pronosticador Beven

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
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National Hurricane Center SHIP model hinting at at a Cat 2 of the Florida West coast.
REMEMBER THIS IS ONLY A FORECAST AND ALWAYS SUBJECT TO CHANGE!


OTHER INTNSITY MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT A CAT 1 OR 2 HURRICANE