..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JULY 31, 2024..

 

A tropical disturbance approaching Puerto Rico is beginning to develop more storms north of Puerto Rico. This system is gradually replacing dry air with ample moisture for some slow development into a depression as it tracks to the west or west-northwest. So far, none of the models are suggesting a tropical storm or hurricane as it approaches the Bahamas and southeast Florida. 

EURO and some of the others suggest development either in the northern Gulf or off shore in the Carolinas as it curves out toward the northeast. Remember that a weaker system will track further west, as some models have been hinting this system would do. Even the Euro ensemble model shows possible development off the southwest Florida coast, and that is reflected in this morning's National Hurricane Center 7-day Medium 60% formation probability shaded orange area.

If this system begins to develop south of the Bahamas and becomes a depression, it will bring some rains and storms with gusty winds to the Bahamas and Florida as it makes that curve north along the coast or partially over the east coast of Florida. No telling how much rain since this is a disorganized system. So we monitor and see what transpires with this disturbance.  

RTW 

Latest Update 0200 pm edt

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas:
A large tropical wave located over the Lesser Antilles continues to 
produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
While development in the short-term is not anticipated as the system 
moves over portions of the Greater Antilles, environmental 
conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for 
development as the system moves generally west-northwestward towards 
the Bahamas and Cuba. A tropical depression could form this weekend 
or early next week when the system is in the vicinity of the Greater 
Antilles, Bahamas, or near Florida. Interests in the Greater 
Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the 
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.