..TROPICAL OUTLOOK SEPT. 3, 2024 0600 PM EDT..

 

September enters with the same lull we had in August: a lack of tropical cyclone development. This is due to the fact that we are still in neutral conditions with Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) still in the Pacific, where most of the activity has been occurring. Also, the early season forecast of above-normal accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) has been lowered due to we have not transitioned into a strong La Niña as it was first forecast. This absence of La Niña and MJO in the Atlantic has allowed vertical shear in the Atlantic, and this has been suppressing development. The latest two-week forecast calls for a decrease in vertical shear and a chance for tropical development. The accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is also down 60%, which is also good less cyclone energy for these storms to thrive on. However, we should not drop our guard because during the next two weeks, as we enter into the peak one storm, it is all it takes to cause havoc. They are still calling for some U.S. landfall before its all said and done. Let's hope they are wrong.

RTW