I hope you all are having a nice start to the weekend. Looking ahead, there are no signs of tropical cyclones developing in the Caribbean for the next 7 days.
A fall cold front will drop south by Wednesday of next week. Behind this front, a high will build south and east over the Atlantic. The Azores high will also build west, merging with the east U.S. high, forcing any Atlantic system westward. This can be seen in the ensemble models through the end of next week. Any development in the Caribbean would be turned westward across central America until the high moves further over the Atlantic. Ensemble models show possible storm tracking north into the Gulf, so I continue to monitor this area. As for Invest 94L, it will briefly track northwest, then turn southwest and west in response to the strong high pressure ridge, so the system could make it into the Caribbean or north of the greater Antilles. So for now, enjoy the storm break and monitor the tropics.
RTW
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ABNT20 KNHC 121131 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94): The circulation associated with an area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands appears to have become slightly better defined this morning. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is only marginally well-organized, and environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for further development later today. A short-lived tropical depression could still form at any time today while the system moves generally westward. After that time, the system is forecast to continue moving westward across the central tropical Atlantic, but further development is not anticipated through at least the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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234 ACCA62 KNHC 121132 TWOSAT Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo en el Trópico Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL 800 AM EDT sábado 12 de octubre de 2024 Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de México: Sistemas Activos: El Centro Nacional de Huracanes está emitiendo advertencias sobre la Tormenta Tropical Leslie, ubicada sobre el Océano Atlántico central. Atlántico Tropical Este (AL94): La circulación associada con un área de baja presión localizada un par de cientos de millas al oeste de las Islas de Cabo Verde parece haberse vuelto ligeramente mejor definida esta mañana. Sin embargo, la actividad de aguaceros y tormentas eléctricas associadas está solo marginalmente bien organizada, y se espera que las condiciones ambientales se vuelvan menos propicias para un mayor desarrollo más tarde hoy. Una depresión tropical de corta duración todavía podría formarse en cualquier momento hoy mientras el sistema se mueve generalmente hacia el oeste. Después de ese tiempo, se pronostica que el sistema continuará moviéndose hacia el oeste a través del Atlántico tropical central, pero no se anticipa un mayor desarrollo hasta al menos la mitad de la próxima semana. * Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...medio...40 por ciento. * Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...medio...40 por ciento. $$ Pronosticador D. Zelinsky *** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es siempre la versión autorizada. ***
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