..TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 14, 2024..

 

Good morning. I hope your having an awesome start to the work week. I am still monitoring the southern and western Caribbean for development in the coming week. I am also monitoring Storm Investigation 94L, which has a medium 50% chance for formation within seven days. 

A strong cold front is forecast to drop southeast over Florida, and a high pressure will then build in behind the front. This strong high will extend out over Bermuda, and the Azores high will then build west and merge with the U.S. high. The outer ridge of the high will induce a westerly flow and force Invest 94L westward.

Then the frontal boundary that moves offshore Florida will stall out and back up over the Florida Straits. This will prevent 94L from proceeding further west past the Bahamas, and the combination of the high and the front will cause 94L to slow and become nearly stationary or find a weakness in the high pressure and turns northeast into the weakness. Note forecast are subject to change in the coming days so I will continue monitoring.

This high will also prevent the Caribbean storm system from tracking very far north. So far, this is what I see with the models at this time. Enjoy the first fall cool front.

RTW

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A well-defined area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing some disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms. This system is currently embedded in a 
dry environment, and development is unlikely over the next couple of 
days. However, this system is forecast to move generally westward 
toward warmer waters, and environmental conditions could become more 
favorable for gradual development by the middle to latter part of 
this week. A tropical depression could form as the system begins 
moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward 
Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


Forecaster Hagen

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887 
ACCA62 KNHC 141139
TWOSAT

Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo en el Trópico
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
800 AM EDT lunes 14 de octubre de 2024

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de México:

Atlántico Tropical Central (AL94): Un área bien definida de baja
presión localizada varios cientos de millas al oeste de las Islas de
Cabo Verde está produciendo algunos aguaceros y tormentas eléctricas
desorganizadas. Este sistema está actualmente incrustado en un
ambiente seco, y es poco probable que se desarrolle durante los
próximos dos días. Sin embargo, se pronostica que este sistema se
moverá generalmente hacia el oeste hacia aguas más cálidas, y las
condiciones ambientales podrían volverse más favorables para el
desarrollo gradual para la mitad a última parte de esta semana. Una
depresión tropical podría formarse a medida que el sistema comienza
a moverse hacia el oeste-noroeste y se acerca o se mueve cerca de
las Islas de Sotavento a fines de esta semana.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...baja...10 por ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...medio...50 por ciento.

$$
Pronosticador Hagen

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