Good morning to all!
I continue to see the ensemble models showing a weaker system tracking over Florida. This would be due to land interaction with Central America and strong upper-level winds that will be moving into the Gulf ahead of the cold front as T.D. 19 or whatever is left of this system moves into the Gulf.
A track between Cuba and the Yucatan as models were previously forecasting would have allowed for a stronger cyclone to develop and another devastating blow for Florida. I will continue to watch it for you since models change from run to run and I don't like storm surprises.
For now, this system remains a life-threatening catastrophic flash flood threat for Honduras. I will continue to monitor T.D. 19 in the coming days.
RTW
| ...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... | |||||||
| 10:00 AM EST Thu Nov 14 Location: 15.7°N 82.6°W Moving: W at 14 mph Min pressure: 1004 mb Max sustained: 35 mph | |||||||
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