..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE NOVEMBER 11, 2024..

 

That tropical wave I have been monitoring is now part of the NHC storm investigation. This wave has a formation chance within 48 hours LOW 10% and a formation chance within 7 days MED 50%. 

Ensemble models are hinting that a storm system could develop in the coming days and into next week and could be pulled northward into the Eastern Gulf and across Florida. It's still too early to say where this system will end up, but I will monitor it and keep you updated in the days to come.

RTW

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the south of 
Hispaniola over the central Caribbean Sea is associated with a 
tropical wave. This system is expected to move slowly westward 
during the next few days, and environmental conditions appear 
conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression could form 
late this week or this weekend while meandering over the western 
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


Forecaster Reinhart