..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE NOV. 12, 2024..

 

Good morning, and I hope you all have a blessed day.

NHC has once again raised their 7-day formation probability to high 80%. So this means that by this weekend we could see a tropical cyclone forming in the western Caribbean. 

A slow moving tropical wave I been monitoring since the weekend will help to enhance development of this tropical cyclone in the coming days.

Most of the ensemble favors a northward track between Cuba and the Yucatan and then a turn to the northeast over Florida as high pressure moves into the Atlantic in response to a trough/cold front that will drop into the Gulf and across Florida. However, we also have some models that show the front digging south earlier and turning this system northeast earlier and across Cuba and Haiti and into the Atlantic. However it is still to soon to tell where this so called system will end up.

Some of the ensemble models show a weaker system over Florida, and that could be due to strong upper-level winds ahead of the front and dry air in the Gulf of Mexico. So for now, we watch and remain storm-ready!

RTW

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea is producing an area 
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form by the end of the week as the system 
moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea.  Afterward, 
the disturbance is expected to meander over the western Caribbean 
Sea through the weekend and begin moving slowly, generally 
northwestward, by early next week.  Interests across the western 
Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...Medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.


Forecaster Roberts