RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JULY 14, 2025

 

Noticed that NHC has upped the two-day 20% formation chance and the seven-day formation chance to 30%. As it is right now, this system is producing disorganized showers and storms with lightning off the east coast of Florida. Some of these storms will move over the southern Florida Peninsula in the next day or so as it slowly tracks over the state. The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a flood watch for today for a portion of the southeast coast of Florida due to the heavy rains associated with this disturbance. Afterward there is a chance that this system could develop some and affect somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast. German models show a stronger system moving on shore in Louisiana, but it's too soon to tell. So those who live along the Northern Gulf should monitor the progress of this disturbance.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

326 
ABNT20 KNHC 141709
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northeastern Gulf:
An area of low pressure located offshore of the east coast of
Florida is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  This
disturbance is forecast to move westward across Florida during the
next day or so, and into the northeastern Gulf by late Tuesday.
Environmental conditions appear favorable and some gradual
development of this system is possible while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the northeastern and north-central
portions of the Gulf during the middle to latter part of this week. 
 
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf
coast through the middle to latter portion of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

------------------------------------------------------------------

011 
ACCA62 KNHC 141711
TWOSAT
ACCA62 KNHC 141711
TWOSAT

Perspectiva del Tiempo Tropical
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
200 PM EDT lunes 14 de julio de 2025

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de América:

Noreste del Golfo: Un área de baja presión localizada en alta mar de
la costa este de Florida está produciendo aguaceros y tormentas
desorganizadas. Se pronostica que esta perturbación se mueva hacia
el oeste a través de Florida durante el próximo día más o menos, y
en el noreste del Golfo a última hora del martes. Las condiciones
ambientales parecen favorables y es posible algún desarrollo gradual
de este sistema mientras se mueve hacia el oeste a oeste-noroeste a
través de las porciones noreste y centro norte del Golfo durante el
medio a la última parte de esta semana.

Independientemente del desarrollo, las fuertes lluvias podrían
producir inundaciones repentinas localizadas sobre porciones de
Florida y la costa del centro norte del Golfo hasta el final de esta
semana.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...baja...20 por ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...baja...30 por ciento.

$$
Pronosticadora Bucci

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
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del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es
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Excessive rainfall Outlook a Slight risk for today Monday and Tuesday and a 
Marginal risk on Wednesday as this system moves across the state. The Slight
risk then shifts to the northern Gulf where this system is forecast to make 
landfall.
COURTESY OF WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER


Flood Watch for a portion of the southeast Florida coast today. 
"A flood watch means that conditions are favorable for flooding to occur, but flooding is not currently happening. It's a heads-up to be prepared, not necessarily an immediate danger. " 
RTW
NWS Miami, FL
Widespread rain amounts of 1-3" are expected today. There is a slight risk for excessive rainfall capable of producing flooding, mainly across the east coast where a few isolated locations may receive 3-5" or more.
Watch map courtesy of the National Weather Service in Miami, FL.


ENSEMBLE MODELS COURTESY OF WEATHERNERDS.ORG

COURTESY OF https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
COURTESY OF https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/


SATELLITE COURTESY OF WEATHERNERDS.ORG