RTW TROPICAL OUTLOOK 11:00 AM JULY 25, 2025

 

Good morning! Hope you're having a good start to Friday! 

Review of the tropics:

Still monitoring the disturbance south of Louisiana. This system is in a marginally favorable area between strong shear and a small area of favorable environment. However, being that it is getting closer to the Texas coast, the probability of tropical formation is low. Heavy rains are still the main concern as this system moves inland over Texas this weekend. 

I noticed an area of disorganized showers and storms in the northwest Caribbean. This disturbance is in a marginally favorable area and has a low chance for formation, as it is too close to the Yucatan Peninsula. Heavy rains, gusty winds, lightning, and the potential for flooding are the main concerns with this system.

Watching the Atlantic as we are getting closer to August and the environment is favorable at this time. The Euro ensemble models are hinting at possible development from the beginning of July 27 through June 4. 

I will keep an eye on the Central Atlantic and will report here if something looks suspicious.

RTW

National Hurricane Center

499 
ABNT20 KNHC 251732
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northwestern Gulf:
A trough of low pressure located just off the coast of southwestern 
Louisiana continues to produce disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  This system is moving westward, and it has limited 
time to develop before it moves inland over southwestern Louisiana 
or Texas tonight.  Regardless of formation, locally heavy rainfall 
is likely over portions of the northwestern Gulf coast during the 
next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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659 
ACCA62 KNHC 251732
TWOSAT

Perspectivas del Tiempo Tropical
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
200 PM EDT viernes 25 de julio de 2025

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de América:

Noroeste del Golfo: Una vaguada de baja presión localizada justo
frente a la costa del suroeste de Louisiana continúa produciendo
aguaceros y tormentas desorganizadas. Este sistema se está moviendo
hacia el oeste, y tiene un tiempo limitado para desarrollarse antes
de que se mueva hacia el interior sobre el suroeste de Louisiana o
Texas esta noche. Independientemente de la formación, las fuertes
lluvias localmente son probables en porciones de la costa noroeste
del Golfo durante los próximos días.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...baja...10 por ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...baja...10 por ciento.

$$
Pronosticador Cangialosi

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Upper-level winds are marginally favorable at this time.



EURO Ensemble Models