UPDATED 0200 PM STORM INVESTIGATION EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAINS DISORGANIZED JULY 21, 2025

 

The storm investigation east of the Lesser Antilles remains disorganized. Conditions for development where this system is located at present are marginally favorable at this time. Sahara Dust is to the north of the disturbance and tracking west along with this system. Upper-level conditions are not favorable for further development as this system moves further east. This will be a short-lived system, as I mentioned over the weekend. Models are picking up on a system behind this one that is being monitored by NHC. The EURO hints that this system could move into the eastern Caribbean. I will keep a watch on it. 

RTW

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National Hurricane Center

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that a weak area of low 
pressure associated with a tropical wave has become less organized 
today. Although the wave is still producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms, environmental conditions are not expected to be 
conducive for development during the next few days while the wave 
moves westward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.



Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Where the storm invest is located on this map it shows marginal upper-level 
conditions.

Sahara Dry and and dust is traveling along with this 
with disturbance just to the north of it. 

Euro model ensemble shows the system behind the storm investigation having 
a better chance for development as it tracks into the eastern Caribbean. 
However, it's still too early to tell if there will be any development at all.




Water-vapor imagery shows dry air over and ahead of the storm investigation.