Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW: RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS AUG 7, 2025

The tropics remain relatively quiet for this time of the season. Sahara dry air and dust have been making it difficult for these systems to develop. Also, upper-level winds, which were favorable, have become less favorable at this time. Also seeing cooler temps over the central Atlantic, which is uncommon for this time of the season. As it is right now, these systems will have a better chance for development east or northeast of the Bahamas and near Bermuda.

Usually it becomes active from the middle to latter half of August and into September, but if that does not occur, then we may see another busy October, which is not good for the Gulf Coast and Florida. For now we continue to prepare and be storm ready!

Other than my thoughts, NHC is monitoring two investigations, and 96L over the Central Atlantic has a 60% chance of formation during the next seven days. See below the NHC Dexter map for the latest.

Still seeing some showers and storm enhancement from the trough of low pressure over the Bahamas. The circulation from this weak low is drawing in the moisture from the Atlantic over Florida.

RTW

...DEXTER BECOMES A STORM-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY...
11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 07 Location: 41.4°N 50.4°W Moving: ENE at 17 mph Min pressure: 998 mb Max sustained: 60 mph

914 
ABNT20 KNHC 071727
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dexter, located over the north-central 
Atlantic Ocean.

Off the Southeastern United States:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form over the 
next day or two, a few hundred miles offshore of North Carolina.  
Some tropical or subtropical development is possible this weekend 
while the system moves northeastward over the warm waters of the 
Gulf Stream, off the east coast of the United States.  By early next 
week, the low is expected to reach colder water and more hostile 
conditions, ending its chance for tropical or subtropical 
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic is producing 
disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions are forecast 
to become more conducive for gradual development in a few days, and 
a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next 
week while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward 
across the central tropical and subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

------------------------------------------------------------------

177 
ACCA62 KNHC 071727
TWOSAT

Perspectivas del Tiempo Tropical
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
200 PM EDT jueves 7 de agosto de 2025

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de América:

Sistemas Activos: El Centro Nacional de Huracanes ha emitido la
advertencia final sobre el Ciclón Pos-Tropical Dexter, ubicado sobre
el centro norte del Océano Atlántico.

Frente al sureste de los Estados Unidos: Se espera que se forme un
área no tropical de baja presión durante el próximo día o dos, a unos
pocos cientos de millas de la costa de Carolina del Norte. Algún
desarrollo tropical o subtropical es posible este fin de semana
mientras el sistema se mueve hacia el noreste sobre las aguas cálidas
de la Corriente del Golfo, frente a la costa este de los Estados
Unidos. A principios de la próxima semana, se espera que la baja
alcance aguas más frías y condiciones más hostiles, terminando su
probabilidad de desarrollo tropical o subtropical.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...baja...10 por ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...baja...20 por ciento.

Atlántico Tropical Central (AL96): Una onda tropical sobre el
Atlántico tropical central está produciendo actividad de aguaceros
desorganizados. Se pronostica que las condiciones ambientales se
vuelvan más propicias para el desarrollo gradual en unos pocos días, y
una depresión tropical podría formarse a fines de este fin de semana o
a principios de la próxima semana mientras el sistema se mueve del
oeste-noroeste a través del Atlántico tropical y subtropical central.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...baja...10 por ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...medio...60 por ciento.

$$
Pronosticador Hagen

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