RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS AUG 8, 2025

 

There is not much to talk about, as we are still waiting for development from some of these African tropical waves. There is one strong wave that is about to emerge off the coast of Africa, which I will monitor closely since there is less dry air and a bit more moisture for this wave to develop on as it tracks west to west-northwest. However, I don't see this wave developing much until it nears the northern Leeward Islands and east of the Bahamas, where conditions should be more favorable. Last I noticed on recent sea surface temperature maps, the Central Atlantic SSTs (sea surface temperatures) are unusually cooler for this time of the season.

As for development or where this tropical wave will go, only God knows, and there are no long-range models that will tell you accurately beyond 7 days. There is too much error in long-range forecasts. 

So once again, don't worry about what you are seeing on the net. We just remain storm ready as always and monitoring as we do every hurricane season.

As for Storm Invest 96L, it is moving into dry air, and this could hinder further development for now. Most of the models show 96L curving out to sea. 96L has a 0% chance of forming within 2 days and a 40% chance of forming within 7 days.

The other storm investigation east of the Carolinas has a 10% chance within 2 days and a 10% chance within 7 days if it happens at all. This system is forecast to track to the northeast away from the U.S. east coast.

RTW

National Hurricane Center

868 
ABNT20 KNHC 081726
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Western Atlantic:
A weak area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles off 
the coast of North Carolina is producing a few disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms.  Development of this system, if any, is expected 
to be slow to occur over the next day or so while it moves 
northeastward at 10 to 15 mph.  The low is likely to merge with a 
front over the weekend, ending its chances for tropical or 
subtropical development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central Atlantic (AL96):
A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic is producing 
minimal shower activity.  Development of this system appears 
unlikely during the next day or two due to surrounding dry air, but 
environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive in a 
few days.  A tropical depression could form during the early 
or middle part of next week while the system moves northwestward to 
northward across the central tropical and subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

-------------------------------------------------------------------

653 
ACCA62 KNHC 081727
TWOSAT

Perspectivas del Tiempo Tropical
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
200 PM EDT viernes 8 de agosto de 2025

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de América:

Oeste del Atlántico: Un área débil de baja presión ubicada a un par de
cientos de millas de la costa de Carolina del Norte está produciendo
algunos aguaceros y tormentas desorganizadas Se espera que el
desarrollo de este sistema, si lo hay, sea lento para ocurrir durante
el próximo día más o menos mientras se mueve hacia el noreste a 10 a
15 mph. La baja es probable que se fusione con un frente durante el
fin de semana, terminando sus posibilidades de desarrollo tropical o
subtropical.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...baja...10 por ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...baja...10 por ciento.

Atlántico Central (AL96): Una onda tropical sobre el Atlántico
tropical central está produciendo una actividad de lluvia mínima. El
desarrollo de este sistema parece poco probable durante el próximo día
o dos debido al aire seco circundante, pero se pronostica que las
condiciones ambientales se vuelvan más propicias en unos días. Una
depresión tropical podría formarse durante la parte temprana o media
de la próxima semana mientras el sistema se mueve hacia el noroeste a
través del Atlántico tropical y subtropical central.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...baja...cerca del 0 por
ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...medio...40 por ciento.

$$
Pronosticador Berg

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