TROPICAL OUTLOOK SEPT 2, 2025

 

I am monitoring the storm investigation south of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system has a low 30% formation chance within 2 days and a high 70% formation chance within 7 days at 8 am this morning per NHC. Most of the ensemble models show recurving out to sea, but some also show it moving further west. It's too far out, and there is no center of circulation to track as of yet. So these models more than likely have error in the forecast at this time. Just keep monitoring the tropics as we do every season.

There are some short-range models showing a weak non-tropical low developing off the Florida coast in association with a stationary frontal boundary. The models suggest multiple lows forming along this boundary keep Florida in a wet pattern with more heavy downpours and strong thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening. This pattern is acting as a blocking mechanism for storms coming from the Atlantic or out of the Caribbean. We are in an MJO neutral pattern at this time, but the MJO (neutral) conditions will eventually be moving east away from the Atlantic, and a more favorable pattern for tropical activity will set in by middle September, if not before. For now we are looking good.

RTW

You can see the stationary front over Florida and Low pressures riding along the boundary. Rain and thunderstorms continues in the forecast.

GDM-FNV3 is Google Deep Mind's newest ensemble (probabilistic) machine learning weather model, optimized for cyclones.

GDM-GENC is the Google Deep Mind GenCast artificial intelligence model.