Thank for you patience and understanding!
RTW
Monday, July 30, 2018
RTW WEBSITE NOT LOADING JULY 30, 2018
Thank for you patience and understanding!
RTW
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 30, 2018... 1035 PM EDT
685 AXNT20 KNHC 301156 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Mon Jul 30 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends over the Cabo Verde Islands along 26W from 06N-22N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A 700 mb trough is noted with this wave, and model guidance supports its location. No significant deep convection is present with this wave at present. A tropical wave is over the east Atlantic with axis extending from 05N-20N along 40W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A 700 mb low is centered near 21N38W over the northern portion of the wave axis. Intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust is hindering convection with this wave. A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis extending from 06N-20N along 63W, moving westward at 20 kt. Intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust to the wave's environment is hindering convection with this feature N of 12N. Widely scattered moderate convection is inland over Venezuela from 04N-07N between 62W- 67W. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis extending from 08N-20N along 77W, moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated deep convection exists from 17N- 20N between 74W-78W. Numerous moderate and scattered deep convection is occurring from 06N-11N between 74W-78W over the SW Caribbean, Panama, Costa Rica, and NW Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 08N33W. The ITCZ extends from 08N33W to 08N38W. W of a tropical wave, the ITCZ resumes near 08N42W and continues to the coast of South America near 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection exists north of 04N east of 18W. Scattered showers are present within 120 nm of the ITCZ west of 48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge extends across the basin along 29N. 5-10 kt variable winds prevail over most of the Gulf waters. Scattered moderate convection is over the N Gulf N of 28N E of 88W. Expect convection to increase over the E Gulf through mid-week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Shallow moisture prevails across the NW basin; and two tropical wave are moving across the Caribbean. Refer to the section above for details. A divergent environment aloft is supporting scattered moderate and isolated deep convection from 17N-20N between 74W-78W and 19N-21N between 81W-85W. In the southwest Caribbean, the EPAC's monsoon trough and a tropical wave supports numerous moderate and scattered deep convection from 06N-11N between 74W-78W over the SW Caribbean, Panama, Costa Rica, and NW Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are forecast to pulse every night over the south-central basin through mid-week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. Diffluent flow between the base of an upper-level trough over the southeast CONUS continues to support scattered moderate convection over the W Atlantic N of 25N to include the Bahamas W of 75W. The Atlantic subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the basin being anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 37N45W. Surface ridging will dominate the central and eastern Atlantic through the weekend providing stable and dry conditions. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Landsea/Formosa
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The tropics remain quiet, no storm formation to report...RTW
Saturday, July 28, 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 28, 2018... 0226 PM EDT
789 AXNT20 KNHC 281729 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 129 PM EDT Sat Jul 28 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands with axis extending from 09N-21N along 21W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A 700 mb trough is noted along the wave axis. Intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust is hindering convection with this wave. A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending from 07N-21N along 48W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust to the wave's environment is hindering convection N of 10N. Scattered moderate convection is developing along and south of 10N mainly near the monsoon trough. A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis extending from 08N-20N along 63W, moving westward at about 10-15 kt. Intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust to the wave's environment is hindering convection N of 12N. Scattered showers are W of the wave axis from 06N-11N between 60W-65W. A tropical wave is over the west-central Caribbean with axis south of 21N along 84W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over the southern portion of the wave from 09N-12N between 80W-85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 22N17W to 11N22W to 10N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N51W to 08N60W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section above, scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge prevails across the basin with 5-10 kt anticyclonic winds prevailing mainly across the eastern gulf. A stationary front is just N of the Florida Panhandle, enhancing convection north of 29N and east of 88W. Scattered showers remain over Florida. A surface trough extends across the Florida Keys/Straits from 22N85W to 26N81W with scattered showers. Mostly fair weather prevails elsewhere. This weather pattern will continue over the weekend. Scattered showers are likely over the Bay of Campeche associated with a tropical wave that will move into this region by Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Shallow moisture in the northwest Caribbean with a divergent environment aloft are supporting scattered showers over the NW Caribbean from 19N-22N between 81W-86W. In the southwest Caribbean, the EPAC's monsoon trough supports scattered showers south of 12N between 76W-85W. This activity is also related to a tropical wave, currently extending along 84W. Isolated showers are occurring over Hispaniola and eastern Cuba due to an upper- level low centered north of Hispaniola near 21N71W. A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean along 64W. Another tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean by late Sunday. Fresh to strong winds are forecast for the south-central basin through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the section above for more details. Diffluent flow between the base of an upper-level trough over the southeast CONUS and a high over the northern Bahamas continue to support scattered showers north of 25N W of 75W. The Atlantic subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the basin being anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 38N48W. Surface ridging will dominate the central and eastern Atlantic through the weekend providing stable and dry conditions. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA
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The tropics remains suppressed by African dust and dry air...RTW
Friday, July 27, 2018
TROPICAL OUTLOOK JULY 27, 2018... 0258 PM EDT
698 AXNT20 KNHC 271728 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 128 PM EDT Fri Jul 27 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends across the east Atlantic with axis from 05N-17N along 32W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is being covered by a Saharan air, which is suppressing convection mainly north of 10N. Shallow moisture associated with the monsoon trough and diffluence in the upper-levels support scattered showers along the wave's axis south of 10N. A tropical wave is over central Atlantic with axis extending from 05N-17N along 42W, moving westward at about 10 kt. Intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust to the wave's environment is hindering convection at this time. A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending from 06N-19N along 57W, moving westward at about 10 kt. Similar to the tropical wave to the east, Saharan dry air and dust is inhibiting convection with this feature. A tropical wave is over the west-central Caribbean with axis south of 21N along 77W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the southern portion of the wave where it meets the monsoon trough S of 12N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19N16W to 06N38W. The ITCZ extends from 06N43W to 06N55W. Scattered showers are noted along the monsoon trough between 22W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The Atlantic subtropical ridge extends its axis SW across the basin, thus supporting light to gentle variable winds basin- wide. A surface trough is moving over the Bay of Campeche enhancing winds in this area to moderate levels. The trough will then dissipate this afternoon. This feature will develop again over the next several nights with winds increasing to locally fresh at times. GOES-16 water vapor imagery at lower levels show very dry air in the Gulf. Surface ridging will prevail across the basin through the weekend. Scattered showers are likely over the Bay of Campeche associated with a tropical wave that will move into this region by Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Shallow moisture in the northwest Caribbean with a divergent environment aloft are supporting scattered showers within 90 nm off the coast of Cuba. In the southwest Caribbean, the EPAC's monsoon trough supports scattered showers south of 12N between 75W-83W. This activity is also related to a tropical wave, currently extending along 77W. Refer to the section above for more details. Isolated showers are occurring in the northern Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands being supported by diffluence aloft associated to an upper-level low centered northeast of Puerto Rico. A new tropical wave is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles tonight, and a second wave will enter the east Caribbean by Sun night. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds are forecast for the south-central basin through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the section above for more details. Diffluent flow between the base of an upper-level trough over the southeast CONUS and a high over the northern Bahamas continue to support scattered showers and tstms north of 20N W of 70W. The upper-level trough will prevail through today, enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity over this area. Farther east, a middle level low just north of Hispaniola supports a surface trough that extends from 25N66W to 22N68W. Scattered moderate convection is noted with this features between 64W-70W. The Atlantic subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the basin being anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 37N53W. Surface ridging will dominate the central and eastern Atlantic through the weekend providing stable and dry conditions. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA
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No change the tropics remain quiet... RTW
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 27, 2018...1034 AM EDT
270 AXNT20 KNHC 271156 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 755 AM EDT Fri Jul 27 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands with axis extending from 06N-16N along 30W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is being covered by a Saharan air layer outbreak, which dry air and dust suppresses convection mainly N of 10N. Shallow moisture associated with the monsoon trough and diffluence in the upper levels support scattered moderate convection from 06N-10N between 30W- 35W. A tropical wave is over central Atlantic with axis extending from 05N-17N along 41W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust to the wave environment hinders convection at the time. A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending from 06N-19N along 56W, moving westward at about 10 kt. Similar to the tropical wave to the E, Saharan dry air and dust hinders convection at this time. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis S of 21N along 76W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Both GOES-16 water vapor imagery and CIRA LPW imagery at lower levels show a very dry environment in this region. Scattered showers are noted along the southern portion of the wave where it meets the monsoon trough S of 11N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N17W to 07N27W to 05N38W. The ITCZ extends from 06N42W to 06N54W. Scattered showers are noted alog the axis between 16W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The Atlantic subtropical ridge extends an axis SW across the Florida peninsula and into the E Gulf, thus supporting light to gentle variable winds basin-wide. A surface trough is moving over the Bay of Campeche this morning enhancing winds in the eastern half of the SW gulf to moderate levels. The trough will then dissipate later this morning. This feature will continue the next several night with winds increasing to locally fresh at times. GOES-16 water vapor imagery at lower levels show very dry air in the Gulf. Surface ridging will prevail across the basin through the weekend. Otherwise, isolated showers and tstms are likely in the Bay of Campeche associated with a tropical wave that will move into this region Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Shallow moisture in the NW Caribbean, low deep layer wind shear along with a divergent environment aloft are supporting heavy showers and tstms within 90 nm off the coast of Cuba. In the SW Caribbean, the EPAC monsoon continue to support scattered showers and tstms within 105 nm of the coast of NW Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica. Isolated showers are occurring in the northern Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands being supported by diffluence aloft associated to an upper level low NE of Puerto Rico. A tropical wave moves over the central basin, however general hostile conditions across the basin associated with strong shear and dry air hinder convection at the time. See the waves section for further details. A new tropical wave is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles tonight, and a second wave will enter the E Caribbean Sun night. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds are forecast for the south-central basin through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the section above for more details. Diffluent flow between the base of an upper trough over the SE CONUS and a high over the northern Bahamas continue to support scattered showers and tstms N of 23N W of 70W. The upper-level trough will prevail through today, enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity over this area. Farther east, a middle level low just N of Hispaniola supports a surface trough that extends from 20N68W to 26N67W along with scattered showers and isolated tstms from 21N to 27N between 65W and 70W. The Atlantic subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the basin being anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 37N53W. Surface ridging will dominate the central and eastern Atlantic through the end of the week providing stable and dry conditions. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos/ERA
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The tropical Atlantic Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico remain quiet for now.
RTW
Thursday, July 26, 2018
TROPIC OUTLOOK JULY 26. 2018... 0300 PM EDT
107 AXNT20 KNHC 261717 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 117 PM EDT Thu Jul 26 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near the Cabo Verde Islands with an axis extending from 18N22W to 05N23W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is well defined with a notable 700 mb trough in model guidance. Deep moisture interacting with the wave S of 10N is supporting scattered moderate convection from 07N to 10N between 21W and 26W. The remainder of the wave environment lacks convection due in part to the presence of Saharan dry air and dust. A tropical wave is over central Atlantic with an axis extending from 20N37W to 05N38W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is associated with a well defined trough at 700 mb. A large area of Saharan dry air and dust continue to hinder convection from developing around this wave. A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with an axis extending from 11N52W to 06N52W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are S of 13N within 90 nm of the wave axis. Strong deep layer wind shear and Saharan dry air and dust are hindering deep convection across the northern portion of the wave. A tropical wave over the central Caribbean has been re-analyzed as of 1500 UTC along 71W based off both long term satellite imagery and 700 mb model field data. Precipitable water satellite imagery shows a very dry environment across the central Caribbean, which along with strong deep layer wind shear are hindering convection S of Hispaniola. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 12N16W to 07N33W. The ITCZ extends from 07N39W to 09N51W...then resumes W of a tropical wave near 09N54W and continues to 10N60W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 11N E of 20W, and within 180 nm N of the ITCZ axis between 54W and 60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough prevails across the E Gulf with its base extending SW from central Florida to the Bay of Campeche. This trough supports a weakening stationary front that extends across the Florida Panhandle to SE Louisiana. It also supports a surface trough that extends from the Florida Big Bend SW to 26N89W. Numerous showers and tstms are within 120 nm SE of this trough. The front is transitioning to a surface trough. Both troughs are expected to lift north through tonight. Otherwise, the Atlantic subtropical ridge covers the remainder of the SE Gulf and will continue to build northwestward across the remainder of the basin through the weekend. Light to gentle variable flow will dominate the basin during this time period. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak upper level low centered near Jamaica along with shallow moisture in the NW Caribbean support scattered showers and tstms N of 17N between 75W and 83W. In the SW basin, the monsoon trough supports numerous showers and tstms S of 11N. A tropical wave is crossing the central Caribbean waters. Please refer to the tropical waves section above for further details. GOES-16 water vapor imagery continues to indicate very dry conditions across the remainder of the basin while enhanced RGB satellite imagery indicates a thin layer of Saharan Air Dust moving across the area. Strong deep layer wind shear is also noted in the E Caribbean. These hostile factors are suppressing convection across the remainder of the Caribbean basin. A new tropical wave is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles Friday night, with showers and thunderstorms beginning to spread across the southern Leeward islands starting this evening in advance of the wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the tropical waves section above for more details. Scattered showers and tstms N of 23N W of 75W are being supported by an upper trough along the eastern United States that extends across the Florida peninsula. This upper trough will prevail through Friday, enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity over this area. Farther east, an upper level low supports a surface trough that extends from 31N63W to 28N66W. These features support a broad area of cloudiness with scattered showers and isolated tstms from 20N to 31N between 62W and 70W. The Atlantic subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the basin being anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 37N54W. Surface ridging will dominate the central and eastern Atlantic through the end of the week providing stable and dry conditions. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto
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Sahara dust continues to suppress tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic...RTW
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 26, 2018...0955 AM EDT
National Hurricane Center
256 AXNT20 KNHC 261203 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 803 AM EDT Thu Jul 26 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near the Cabo Verde Islands with an axis extending from 10N21W to 07N21W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is well defined with a notable 700 mb trough in model guidance. Deep moisture interacting with the wave S of 12N is generating scattered moderate convection from 07N to 12N between 18W and 24W. The remainder wave environment lacks convection due in part to the presence of Saharan dry air and dust. A tropical wave is over central Atlantic with an axis extending from 20N35W to 07N36W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. A large area of Saharan dry air and dust continue to hinder convection from developing around this wave. A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with an axis extending from 18N49W to 05N50W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Strong deep layer wind shear and Saharan dry air and dust are hindering deep convection at this time. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with an axis extending from 21N71W to 11N73W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Precipitable water satellite imagery shows a very dry environment across the central Caribbean, which along with strong deep layer wind shear are hindering convection S of Hispaniola. Only shallow moisture and middle level diffluence support scattered showers and tstms ahead of the wave in the Windward Passage...off SW Haiti. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 12N16W to 09N32W. The ITCZ extends from 09N37W to 08N48W...then resumes W of a tropical wave near 09N52W and continues to the coast of South America near 09N61W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 11N E of 18W, and within 150 nm N of the ITCZ axis between 52W and 60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough prevails across the E Gulf with base extending SW from central Florida to the Bay of Campeche. This trough supports a weak stationary front that extends across the Florida Panhandle to SW Louisiana. It also supports a surface trough that extends from the Florida Big Bend SW to 24N89W. Isolated showers and tstms are within 75 nm SE of this trough. The trough is forecast to dissipate today while the front lifts NE of the area. Otherwise, the Atlantic subtropical ridge covers the remainder SE Gulf and will continue to build northwestward across the remainder basin through the weekend. Light to gentle variable flow will dominate the basin during this time period. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level low centered near Jamaica along with shallow moisture in the NW Caribbean support scattered showers and tstms N of 17N between 72W and 82W. In the SW basin, the monsoon trough supports scattered showers and tstms S of 11N. A tropical wave is crossing the central Caribbean waters. See the tropical waves section above for further details. GOES-16 water vapor imagery indicates very dry conditions across the remainder of the basin while enhanced RGB satellite imagery indicates a thin layer of Saharan Air Dust moving across the area. Strong deep layer wind shear is also noted in the E Caribbean. These hostile factors are suppressing convection across the remainder of the Caribbean basin. A new tropical wave is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles Friday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the tropical waves section above for more details. Scattered showers and tstms are N of the Bahamas W of 76W being supported by an upper trough along the eastern United States that extends to the W Atlc waters. Farther east, an upper level low supports a surface trough that extends from 27N62W to 23N67W which is supporting isolated showers and tstms N of 25N between 61W and 68W. Otherwise, the Atlantic subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the basin being anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 36N56W. Surface ridging will dominate the central and eastern Atlantic through the end of the week providing stable and dry conditions. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto -------------------------------------------------------------------
Wednesday, July 25, 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 25, 2018...0331 PM EDT
479 AXNT20 KNHC 251717 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 117 PM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the far eastern Atlantic west of the Cape Verde Islands with axis along 34W extending from 05N-19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. A large area of Saharan dry air and dust is hindering convective activity from developing at the time. A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis along 46W from 04N-15N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. A large area of Saharan dry air and dust is hindering convective activity from developing at the time. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 62W from 08N- 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. A large area of Saharan dry air and dust is hindering convective activity from developing at the time. A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis along 81W from central Cuba to central Panama, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Shallow moisture in the northern wave environment along with a region of middle to upper level diffluence east of the wave is supporting isolated moderate convection off the coasts of E Cuba and Jamaica. In addition, scattered moderate convection is over the southern portion of the wave along the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica S of 11N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 09N20W to 10N34W to 08N37W. The ITCZ extends from 08N37W to 08N45W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 08N48W and continues to the coast of South America near 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is along the coast of W Africa from 07N-12N between 13W-21W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is over the NE Gulf of Mexico and N Florida. This feature supports a 1013 mb surface low near 30N86W. Diffluence aloft east of the upper level trough is sustaining convection over the W Atlantic off the Florida coast, while diffluence to the south is producing convection over the south central Gulf of Mexico. Convection is expected to continue over these areas through Thu. The Atlantic subtropical ridge will then extend an axis SW across the eastern Gulf. Surface ridging is forecast to continue through the weekend, thus providing light to gentle variable flow across the basin. Elsewhere, a surface trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche each evening, accompanied by fresh nocturnal winds. Scattered to isolated showers are possible in the Bay of Campeche with the surface trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See above. Scattered moderate convection is over N Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. Isolated showers are located over waters S of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola between 65W and 75W. These showers are being sustained by a small region of shallow moisture and diffluence aloft. Relatively dry and stable conditions persist elsewhere. Expect the surface pressure gradient to support fresh to strong winds in the south-central basin through Fri. Elsewhere, stable conditions with light to moderate winds are expected. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two more tropical waves are moving across the basin lacking convection due to the presence of the dry air in the Saharan Air Layer. Refer to the tropical waves section above for more details. Scattered moderate convection is across the W Atlantic including the northern Bahamas, W of 75W. Farther east, a middle to upper level low supports an area of scattered moderate convection from 22N-28N between 56W-64W. Otherwise, the Atlantic subtropical ridge dominates the remainder basin being anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 37N55W. Expect convection north of the Bahamas through the weekend. Thesurface pressure gradient between the Atlantic 1031 mb subtropical high and the low pressure over the southeast U.S. will produce moderate to fresh southerly winds across the waters north of 25N and west of 70W including Florida coastal waters today. Moderate to fresh winds are also expected south of 22N, including approaches to the Windward Passage. Surface ridging will dominate the central and eastern Atlantic through the end of the week providing stable and dry conditions. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa
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THE TROPICS REMAIN QUIET FOR NOW...RTW
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 25, 2018... 1036 AM EDT
...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the far eastern Atlantic west of the Cape Verde Islands with axis along 32W extending from 06N-20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. A large area of Saharan dry air and dust is hindering convective activity from developing at the time. A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis along 45W from 06N-15N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. A large area of Saharan dry air and dust is hindering convective activity from developing at the time. A tropical wave is over the Lesser Antilles with axis along 61W from 08N-18N, moving westward at 15 kt. A large area of Saharan dry air and dust is hindering convective activity from developing at the time. A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis along 80W from central Cuba to central Panama, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Shallow moisture in the northern wave environment along with a region of middle to upper level diffluence ahead of the wave is supporting isolated moderate convection off the coasts of Cuba and Jamaica. In addition, widely scattered moderate convection is over the southern portion of the wave along the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica S of 11N.
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All quiet in the tropics...RTW
Tuesday, July 24, 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 24, 2018 0611 PM EDT
...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the Cape Verde Islands with axis extending from 06N-20N along 24W, moving W at 15 kt. A large area of Saharan dust is noted along the wave mainly north of 14N. Isolated moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 08N-16N between 12W-19W. A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis extending from 05N-17N along 37W, moving W at 15 kt. A large area of Saharan dust is noted along the wave mainly north of 10N. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave intersects the monsoon trough from 08N-10N between 32W-38W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 06N-20N along 55W is moving W at 15 kt. This wave is on the leading edge of a large area of Saharan air, inhibiting large scale convection at this time. A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis extending from 08N-20N along 70W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is accompanied by Saharan dry air and dust, inhibiting any significant convection.
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The tropics remain quiet for now! RTW
Wednesday, July 18, 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 18, 2018 1038 AM EDT
Updating the tropics lately has been a mission. Yesterday I was out with a sprain ankle helping my daughter move. Today I did not bring my heavy back pack because of my ankle. So I am winging the tropical weather outlook from my phone. So bare with me and after I come back from vacation on July 25 tropical updates and website updates will resume.
RTW
Tropical outlook:
The tropical Atlantic remains suppressed by a hugh surge of Sahara Dry air and dust that extends from the African coast all the way to the Caribbean and Florida.
So far there are three tropical waves across the Atlantic and none are showing signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time. Below you will find NHC surface map and Tropical Tidbit satellite.
RTW
RTW
Tropical outlook:
The tropical Atlantic remains suppressed by a hugh surge of Sahara Dry air and dust that extends from the African coast all the way to the Caribbean and Florida.
So far there are three tropical waves across the Atlantic and none are showing signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time. Below you will find NHC surface map and Tropical Tidbit satellite.
RTW
Monday, July 16, 2018
IN THE MEANTIME A BRIEF TROPICAL OUTLOOK
2. Another large axis wave near 40° West is also surrounded by Sahara dust.
3. A short axis wave over Puerto Rico extends southwest over northern Columbia.
4. A wave across northeast Honduras and Nicaragua. Sahara dust the Caribbean as well but lite.
Non of the tropical waves are showing signs of organization at this time.
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UPDATE TO DOWN SERVER FROM SITEBUILDER
I will keep you posted!
Ralph's Tropical Weather (RTW)
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