227 WTNT32 KNHC 051431 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Gordon Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 05 2018 ...GORDON CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 90.2W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For more information on Gordon, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gordon was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 90.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Gordon will move across the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest and north is forecast to occur on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as Gordon moves farther inland. Jackson, Mississippi, recently reported a wind gust of 35 mph (55 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over the western Florida Panhandle, southwest Alabama, central Mississippi, Arkansas, Missouri, southern Iowa and Illinois, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through early Saturday. This rainfall will cause flash flooding across portions of these areas. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force could occur in showers and thunderstorms associated with Gordon today. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible through this evening over Mississippi and western Alabama. STORM SURGE: Water levels along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast will gradually subside later today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Gordon. Future information on Gordon can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and on the web at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. $$ Forecaster Beven
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FLORENCE UPDATE BY NHC
438 WTNT31 KNHC 051439 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 05 2018 ...FLORENCE FLOURISHING IN THE FACE OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 45.7W ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1370 MI...2205 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 45.7 West. Florence is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Thursday, followed by a turn back toward the northwest early next week. Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is possible during the next few days, but Florence is expected to remain a strong hurricane through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg/Rhome
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Guidance models continue spread an uncertain forecast
Noticing that NHC model more to the left than previous model run and UKMET
continues to the left of NHC. Euro model during this morning model run is also
back to the west and landfall in the Carolinas. Big question mark to where it will
end up at this time.
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/