TROPICAL UPDATE JULY 4TH 2017 0321 PM EDT

Invest 94L still does not have a closed circulation.  Low is some what exposed and convection (thunderstorms) is to the west of the circulation.  Southeasterly shear is over this system at this time and 94L is still forecast to become a depression in a day or so.  So far the intensity models suggest a tropical storm and one model a cat 1 hurricane.  

The forecast model tracks are to the west northwest with a leftward bias by the end of the forecast.  The leftward bias could be high pressure building westward over 94L.  However, 94L is still to far out to say where it may be headed.  Keep monitoring here daily for updates.

NHC has a HIGH probability of 70% within 48 hrs of development and a HIGH probability of 80% within the next 5 days. 

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

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HAPPY 4TH OF JULY TO ALL!

HAPPY 4TH OF JULY
FROM RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER!

EVENING TROPICAL UPDATE JULY 3, 2017 1103 PM EDT

INVEST 94L:
Storm Investigation 94L continues to slowly become better organized.  This 1011 mb is Low is between 33° and 34° West Latitude.   Although they say this system is nearly stationary it seems to have drifted more toward the West and West-Northwest.  Sahara air layer is still to the north of this system near 12° N longitude.  Being that this system is now at a lower Longitude it and along a monsoonal trough the showers are more numerous. 

NHC has now raised the probability of development to Medium chance within 48 hrs. and the High remains at 70% within the next 48 hrs for now. 

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

 WSI CORP.

 

UPDATED MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST

Tonight Jul 3 2017

Partly cloudy. Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 97°F. East southeast wind to 10 MPH.

Tuesday Jul 4

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 99°F. East southeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Partly Cloudy during the night: Lows around 82°F. Heat index around 93°F. East wind to 10 MPH.

Wednesday Jul 5

Partly Cloudy during the ay: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 95°F. East wind 8 to 13 MPH.

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 82°F. Heat index around 93°F. East wind to 12 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Jul 6

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 97°F. East southeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 82°F. Heat index around 93°F. East wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Friday Jul 7

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 99°F. East southeast wind to 9 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 82°F. Heat index around 95°F. Southeast wind to 7 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Saturday Jul 8

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 95°F. South southeast wind to 9 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 82°F. Heat index around 95°F. Southeast wind to 8 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Sunday Jul 9

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 95°F. Southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 82°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

FORECAST MAPS AND LIVE RADAR IS COURTESY OF N.W.S. IN MIAMI FLORIDA

TROPICAL UPDATE JULY 3, 2017 0421 PM EDT

RTW:  Ralph's Tropical Weather

Keeping an eye on the low near 34° West Latitude for development in the coming days.  Latest satellite animation shows a small circulation obscured by clouds and the showers are becoming more numerous as this system meanders for now at a lower longitude between 08° and 10° North.

Being at these lower Longitudes seems to have help this system a bit since the Sahara Air Layer is north of 12° North Longitude, and this low is within a moist monsoonal trough which is enhancing shower activity around this system.  

NHC is has up the LOW chance to 30% within 48 hrs. and the HIGH chance remains at 70% during the next 5-days.

Stay tuned here for the latest on Storm Invest 94 L

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 STORM INVESTIGATION 94L MAP BY RTW

  

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

WSI CORPORATION

TOMORROWS 4 OF JULY THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

 

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TODAY'S THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

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TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE JULY 3, 2017 1140 AM EDT

A tropical wave that was part of a low pressure has detached and is now to the west of the low near 39° West Latitude. The low is now considered STORM INVEST 94L since probabilities for development are rising. The low has been meandering, and is now a bit further south around 09° North Longitude and near 33° West Latitude.  This may be a tad more favorable for development if it begins tracking westward at those low longitutdes and away from the Sahara Air Layer (African dust & dry air ) that is presently north of 12° North Longitude of where the low is located.

High pressure over the Atlantic north of this system will eventually begin steering this low to the west or west-northwest and north of the northern Leeward Islands as most models suggest.  Still to early to say if that forecast will hold because the atmosphere changes constantly.

NHC is giving this system a LOW chance 20% within 48 hrs. and has increased to HIGH chance 70% within the next 5-days.

Stayed tuned here daily for the latest of the tropics.  Models are
RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

WSI INTELLICAST

EVENING TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 2, 2017 0937 PM EDT

The tropical wave near 33° West Latitude has been nearly stationary most of the day.  This wave remains in a area of Sahara dust and dry air and the shower activity has diminished some in the past 8 hours.  This wave has a weak low pressure associated with it and slow development is possible during the coming days as this wave resumes a westward track.  NHC is giving this wave a LOW chance 10% within 48 hours and has increase the MED chance to 60% within the next five days.  The Atlantic high to the north of this wave will help steer this wave toward to west to a west northwest. 

This is a wave to monitor closely into next week as it could move in the Direction of the Lesser Antilles or north of the northern Leeward islands and head toward the East Bahamas.  Most of the models suggest a turn away from the U.S. but some don't.  Still to far out in the future to worry about the track of this system.

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 

TOMORROW'S THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 2, 2017 0242 PM EDT

The wave is now near 33 west and continues tracking toward the west.  There seems to be more shower activity associated with it but Sahara Dust and dry air is still somewhat hindering development of thunderstorms.  NHC is still giving this wave a LOW chance 10% within the next 48 hours but has increased the MED chance to 50% within the next 5-days.  Stay tuned here for the latest on the tropics.

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 2, 2017 0236 AM EDT

A tropical wave near 32°-31° west latitude is presently moving through an area of Sahara Air and dust.  Although there seems to be more convection (thunderstorms) showing on the latest satellite imagery, this dry air and dust seems to be hindering development of convection (thunderstorms) at this time.  Models still showing development in the coming days.

NHC is still giving this system a LOW chance 10% of development within 48 hours and a MED chance 40% of development during the next 5-days.  Stay tuned here for the latest of the tropics.

Please support RTW site with a small donation so we can make the site a .com and remove banner at bottom of page.  Thanks for the help.

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UPDATED MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST

Tonight Jul 1, 2017

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms: Lows around 79°F. East wind to 9 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Jul 2

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 97°F. East wind 5 to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 79°F. East wind 5 to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Monday Jul 3

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind 5 to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 79°F. East wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tuesday Jul 4

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 97°F. East southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Wednesday Jul 5

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East southeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday Jul 6

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday Jul 7

Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 9 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. Southeast wind to 8 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.

FORECAST MAPS AND LIVE RADAR ARE COURTESY OF N.W.S. IN MIAMI FLORIDA