TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE JULY 5, 2017 04:14 PM EDT

RTW:

The center of circulation of 94L is remains exposed to the right of the convection (thunderstorms) ahead of the low level circulation.  Most of the models keep this system weak and some even show it diminishing as it nears the Eastern Bahamas.  This system has its own moisture surrounding the low but there is a wide area of dry air that this system has to track through and moderate easterly shear is also affecting the low/wave.  It still has a chance for development before it runs into a more unfavorable environment.  As for the track a weak system will tend to track west-to a west-northwest.  However, this system has been generally tracking toward the northwest per model and past position/track issued for this invest during each model run.  Some models still have that left bias and once again this could be that the Atlantic high will build westward in time or we will be dealing with a weak disorganized system that will not be influenced by any troughs moving off the east coast... Stay tuned here daily for the latest update on 94L.

Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

12z MODEL RUN IS OUT JULY 5, 2017 01:39 PM EDT

RTW:
The 12z model run is out and there is still a leftward bias on most of the tracks.  however, we don't have a well developed system, and its still to far out in the Atlantic to get tight accurate run.

So far this system is struggling with some moderate easterly shear between 36° and 45° west Latitude.  There is also dry air between 40° and 60° west Latitude that this system will have to deal with.  However, the Low seems to be surrounded by its own moisture, so some slow development is possible as this system begins tracking to the west-northwest.  94L has been tracking mainly toward the northwest.

0200 PM EDT UPDATE from NHC
NHC drops probability for development, see below.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 5, 2017 1057 AM EDT

RTW:
There is an area of showers  with a small nucleus of colder cloud tops where the stronger storms are located ahead of the Low Level Circulation (LLC).  If this circulation can manage to catch up with the convectiom (thunderstorms) then we will see a depression form later today or tomorrow. Most of the models are still suggesting a weak system although intensity models say a tropical storm.  According to atmospherirc data the conditions ahead of this system will become unfavorable in the coming days and this could be what the models are suggesting.  I will keep you posted.  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

  

NCAR

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

WSI CORP.

TROPICAL UPDATE JULY 5, 2017 1204 AM EDT

Invest 94L seems to be slowly moving toward the north-northwest but is forecast to turn back toward the west-northwest after in track to higher longitudes.  This evening this system which now has a wave as part of the low level circulation has developed a symmetrical ball of convection (thunderstorm) with a small nucleus in the center of colder cloud tops stronger thunderstorms.

I will keep watching it for you in the coming days.

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

TROPICAL UPDATE JULY 4TH 2017 0321 PM EDT

Invest 94L still does not have a closed circulation.  Low is some what exposed and convection (thunderstorms) is to the west of the circulation.  Southeasterly shear is over this system at this time and 94L is still forecast to become a depression in a day or so.  So far the intensity models suggest a tropical storm and one model a cat 1 hurricane.  

The forecast model tracks are to the west northwest with a leftward bias by the end of the forecast.  The leftward bias could be high pressure building westward over 94L.  However, 94L is still to far out to say where it may be headed.  Keep monitoring here daily for updates.

NHC has a HIGH probability of 70% within 48 hrs of development and a HIGH probability of 80% within the next 5 days. 

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

 WSI CORP.

 

HAPPY 4TH OF JULY TO ALL!

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FROM RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER!

EVENING TROPICAL UPDATE JULY 3, 2017 1103 PM EDT

INVEST 94L:
Storm Investigation 94L continues to slowly become better organized.  This 1011 mb is Low is between 33° and 34° West Latitude.   Although they say this system is nearly stationary it seems to have drifted more toward the West and West-Northwest.  Sahara air layer is still to the north of this system near 12° N longitude.  Being that this system is now at a lower Longitude it and along a monsoonal trough the showers are more numerous. 

NHC has now raised the probability of development to Medium chance within 48 hrs. and the High remains at 70% within the next 48 hrs for now. 

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

 WSI CORP.

 

UPDATED MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST

Tonight Jul 3 2017

Partly cloudy. Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 97°F. East southeast wind to 10 MPH.

Tuesday Jul 4

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 99°F. East southeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Partly Cloudy during the night: Lows around 82°F. Heat index around 93°F. East wind to 10 MPH.

Wednesday Jul 5

Partly Cloudy during the ay: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 95°F. East wind 8 to 13 MPH.

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 82°F. Heat index around 93°F. East wind to 12 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Jul 6

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 97°F. East southeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 82°F. Heat index around 93°F. East wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Friday Jul 7

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 99°F. East southeast wind to 9 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 82°F. Heat index around 95°F. Southeast wind to 7 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Saturday Jul 8

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 95°F. South southeast wind to 9 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 82°F. Heat index around 95°F. Southeast wind to 8 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Sunday Jul 9

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 95°F. Southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 82°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

FORECAST MAPS AND LIVE RADAR IS COURTESY OF N.W.S. IN MIAMI FLORIDA