Some perspective, the 185 mph wind in Irma would fall into the EF-4 range on the tornado damage scale. Why they are using "catastrophic"
Tuesday, September 5, 2017
HURRICANE IRMA UPDATE 1100 PM EDT SEPT 5, 2017
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA GETTING VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 61.1W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF ANTIGUA ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM ESE OF BARBUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis * Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten * Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti * Guadeloupe A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas * Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominica * Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the southern border with Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as well as Cuba, the central and northwestern Bahamas, and Florida should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 61.1 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma will move over portions of the northern Leeward Islands tonight and early Wednesday, move near or over portions of the northern Virgin Islands Wednesday, and pass near or just north of Puerto Rico late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 916 mb (27.05 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Northern Leeward Islands...7 to 11 ft Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft Southeastern Bahamas...15 to 20 ft Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft Northern coast of Puerto Rico...3 to 5 ft Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning within a couple of hours. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday night. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas by early Thursday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Thursday: Northern Leeward Islands...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches Southwest Puerto Rico, the southern Leeward Islands, and St. Croix...2 to 4 inches Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations Wednesday through Saturday: Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches Southwest Haiti...1 to 4 inches These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the northern coast of the Dominican Republic during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
00z MODEL RUN 0900 PM EDT SEPT 5, 2017
Combo of New and old HWFI, HWRF, HMON. They been shifting north. They were trending west northwest for the longest now to the north. They have been right on so far and they can't be ignored. RTW
HURRICANE IRMA 0500 PM EDT UPDATE SEPT 5, 2017
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA NEARING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SOON...
000 WTNT21 KNHC 052051 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 2100 UTC TUE SEP 05 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE BORDER WITH HAITI EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA... BARBUDA... ANGUILLA... MONTSERRAT... ST. KITTS... AND NEVIS * SABA... ST. EUSTATIUS... AND SINT MAARTEN * SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO... VIEQUES... AND CULEBRA * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE * HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE * DOMINICA * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI FROM SOUTH OF LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO PORT-AU-PRINCE A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI... AS WELL AS CUBA... THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... AND FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 59.8W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 926 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 160 KT WITH GUSTS TO 195 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT.......150NE 110SE 100SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 240SE 240SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 59.8W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 59.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.6N 61.8W MAX WIND 155 KT...GUSTS 190 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.5N 64.6W MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.5N 67.3W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.4N 70.1W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.6N 75.3W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 22.7N 79.3W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 24.4N 81.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 59.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
18z MODEL RUN AND 12Z MODEL RUN FOR COMPARING
Well we are see more model on the right of the previous track. However, still not confident with those tracks. NHC track holding about the same.
18z Model Run
12z Model run
HURRICANE CENTER DISCUSION FROM 11 AM EDT
000 WTNT41 KNHC 051446 TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017 Irma is an extremely impressive hurricane in both infrared and visible satellite images. Experimental GOES-16 one-minute visible satellite pictures show a distinct 25-30 n mi wide eye with several mesovortices rotating within with eye. The aircraft have not sampled the northeastern eyewall where the strongest winds were measured shortly before 1200 UTC this morning, but the Air Force plane will be entering the eye in that quadrant momentarily. A peak SFMR wind of 154 kt was reported, with a few others of 149-150 kt. Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this advisory. This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC records. Irma is expected to remain within low vertical wind shear, a moist mid-level atmosphere, and high upper-ocean heat content as it moves west-northwestward during the next several days. These conditions should allow the hurricane to remain very intense throughout much of the forecast period, however, fluctuations in intensity are likely to occur as eyewall replacement cycles take place. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper-end of the guidance and assumes little overall interaction of Irma with the islands of the Greater Antilles. Irma continues to move westward at about 12 kt, and a strong subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic should steer Irma generally westward today. The ridge is expected to remain in place over the western Atlantic during the next several days and Irma is forecast to move west-northwestward throughout the most of remainder of the forecast period. Around day 5, a shortwave trough dropping southward over the central United States is expected to begin eroding the western portion of the ridge, allowing a Irma to gain some latitude. The new NHC track forecast is close to the HFIP corrected consensus model and is very similar to the previous forecast. Since Irma is a large hurricane, users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track since tropical-storm and hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge extend far from the center. Residents in the Leeward Islands should complete their preparations very soon as the weather will begin to deteriorate over the easternmost Leeward Islands later this afternoon. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to portions of the northeastern Leeward Islands beginning later today and the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning tomorrow. Preparations should be rushed to completion before the arrival of tropical-storm force winds later today in the Leeward Islands and tomorrow morning in Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. 2. Hurricane watches have been issued for portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos, and Irma could bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to those areas on Thursday and Friday. 3. Irma could directly affect the remainder of the Bahamas and Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials. 4. The chance of direct impacts from Irma later this week and this weekend is increasing in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula. However, it is too soon to specify the timing and magnitude of the impacts. Elsewhere, it is too early to determine what direct impacts Irma might have on the continental United States. Everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 16.8N 58.4W 155 KT 180 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 17.2N 60.3W 155 KT 180 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 18.1N 63.0W 150 KT 175 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 19.1N 65.9W 145 KT 165 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 20.1N 68.7W 140 KT 160 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 21.4N 74.0W 135 KT 155 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 22.7N 78.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 24.4N 81.2W 125 KT 145 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
HURRICANE IRMA 11AM EDT ADVISORY SEPT 5, 2017
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...
000 WTNT31 KNHC 051445 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 58.4W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF ANTIGUA ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BARBUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the north coast of Haiti from the border of the Dominican Republic westward to Le Mole St. Nicholas. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis * Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten * Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Dominica A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engao to Isla Saona * Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. In this case, for some of easternmost islands, the hurricane conditions are expected within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as well as Cuba, the central and northwestern Bahamas, and Florida should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 58.4 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest tonight. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma is forecast to move over portions of the northern Leeward Islands tonight and early Wednesday. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 931 mb (27.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels along the coasts of the extreme northern Leeward Islands within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft Northern coast of Puerto Rico...3 to 5 ft Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands by tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area where hurricane conditions are also possible. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas by early Thursday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches across the northern Leeward Islands. Irma is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and amounts of 2 to 4 inches over southwest Puerto Rico, the southern Leeward Islands, and Saint Croix. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
Monday, September 4, 2017
BRTYAN NORCROSS EVENING IRMA UPDATE SEPT 4, 2017
Bryan Norcross added 3 new photos.
Fierce
Cat 4 HURRICANE IRMA is, unfortunately, on track. The center of the
storm is forecast to be south of the Keys on Saturday, and then begin a
move to the north. It is impossible to know how strong the storm will
be - it will depend on how it interacts with the Cuban landmass plus
other factors. Therefore it is impossible to say exactly what path the
core of the storm - the strongest winds - will take.
Hurricane Irma will be larger than the Peninsula of Florida, so on any of the most likely tracks, the entire width of the state will feel the storm. The parts near where the center goes will get the worst, however, and we won't know where that is until we get much closer to the event.
On the current schedule, winds will start picking up in South Florida Friday afternoon and evening, later on the southwest coast and in the Lower Keys. This means that preps will have to be completed Friday morning, and to be safe, think about being ready by Thursday night on the southeast coast.
People in Southeast Florida - Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach - should imagine Hurricane Wilma at a MINIMUM. Many things can change between now and Saturday, but the odds at this point favor at least that type of storm. Some areas may well get a drastically stronger storm than Wilma was when it hit Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, and WPB, but we don't know where that might be. It's just too early.
There is the possibility of an extreme storm in the Keys an in some part of the Peninsula.
We have plenty of time to prepare. If the storm forecast continues to show a direct impact in Florida, evacuations will be ordered and there will be a frenzy in the stores. Take care of things now that everybody has to do - get gas, get supplies, get prescriptions, and get cash. You'll have time for other physical preps this week.
My previous post contains a checklist of the minimum supplies you need. Attached is a list from Brevard County Emergency Management with ADDITIONAL recommended supplies. (Though I recommend 7 days of food and water.)
Now is a good time to get in touch with your friends and neighbors to be sure everybody is paying attention and doing the right thing. Also, think about elderly and electricity-dependent people you know. They may need help this week if the storm tracks as it looks most likely.
More as we know more... but don't wait.
Hurricane Irma will be larger than the Peninsula of Florida, so on any of the most likely tracks, the entire width of the state will feel the storm. The parts near where the center goes will get the worst, however, and we won't know where that is until we get much closer to the event.
On the current schedule, winds will start picking up in South Florida Friday afternoon and evening, later on the southwest coast and in the Lower Keys. This means that preps will have to be completed Friday morning, and to be safe, think about being ready by Thursday night on the southeast coast.
People in Southeast Florida - Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach - should imagine Hurricane Wilma at a MINIMUM. Many things can change between now and Saturday, but the odds at this point favor at least that type of storm. Some areas may well get a drastically stronger storm than Wilma was when it hit Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, and WPB, but we don't know where that might be. It's just too early.
There is the possibility of an extreme storm in the Keys an in some part of the Peninsula.
We have plenty of time to prepare. If the storm forecast continues to show a direct impact in Florida, evacuations will be ordered and there will be a frenzy in the stores. Take care of things now that everybody has to do - get gas, get supplies, get prescriptions, and get cash. You'll have time for other physical preps this week.
My previous post contains a checklist of the minimum supplies you need. Attached is a list from Brevard County Emergency Management with ADDITIONAL recommended supplies. (Though I recommend 7 days of food and water.)
Now is a good time to get in touch with your friends and neighbors to be sure everybody is paying attention and doing the right thing. Also, think about elderly and electricity-dependent people you know. They may need help this week if the storm tracks as it looks most likely.
More as we know more... but don't wait.
HURRICANE IRMA 11 PM EDT UPDATE SEPT 4, 2017
000 WTNT31 KNHC 050235 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 04 2017 ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 55.6W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watch for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra has been changed to a Hurricane Warning. The government of Antigua has changed the Hurricane Watch for the British Virgin Islands to a Hurricane Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis * Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten * Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Cuba, and the southeastern and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 55.6 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue into Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Irma will move near or over portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter observations is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels along the coasts of the extreme northern Leeward Islands within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...4 to 6 ft Northern coast of Puerto Rico...2 to 4 ft Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Wednesday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area by late Tuesday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across the northern Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. These rainfall amounts may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
I PREPARED THIS A LONG TIME AGO AND IT HAS GOOD INFORMATION FOR PLANNING AND PREP
CLICK ON PDF FILE FOR PLANNING PREP BY Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW
file:///C:/Users/Ralph/Documents/Planning%20and%20Preparation.pdf
file:///C:/Users/Ralph/Documents/Planning%20and%20Preparation.pdf
CALIBRATED EURO MODEL ENSEMBLE INDICATES 40% CHANCE FOR MAJOR STORM WINDS IN FLORIDA
Craig Setzer CBS4 and Conor liked
The latest Calibrated ECMWF Ensembles indicate a 40% chance for Major Hurricane Force Winds in South Florida via #Irma next weekend/week
IRMAD 00z MODEL RUN 0900 PM EDT SEPT 4, 2017
MODELS STILL TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH WITH SOME EAST OF FLORIDA MODELS MINUS CLP5 THAT IS A HISTORICAL MODEL OF PAST STORM TRACKS.
THE HWFI MODEL WHICH I BEEN FOLLOWING IS NOW FURTHER NORTH OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE HMON HAS NOW TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY WHERE THE HWFI IS A PRESENT. IT IS NOT LOOKING GOOD FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND FLORIDA AS I SEE IT NOW UNLESS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN EARLIER AND HELPS KEEP IRMA OFFSHORE.
INTENSITY MODEL KEEPS IRMA AS A CAT 4 AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA AND ONE MODEL SUGGEST CAT 5 IRMA. THIS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
THE HWFI MODEL WHICH I BEEN FOLLOWING IS NOW FURTHER NORTH OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE HMON HAS NOW TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY WHERE THE HWFI IS A PRESENT. IT IS NOT LOOKING GOOD FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND FLORIDA AS I SEE IT NOW UNLESS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN EARLIER AND HELPS KEEP IRMA OFFSHORE.
INTENSITY MODEL KEEPS IRMA AS A CAT 4 AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA AND ONE MODEL SUGGEST CAT 5 IRMA. THIS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
WHAT IS A STATE OF EMERGENCY?
bnorcross @bnorcross
To be clear, the State of Emergency in Florida simply allows the state to take appropriate prep steps. There is no emergency in FL. #Irma
.@FLGovScott has declared a state of emergency for Florida ahead of Hurricane Irma http://wsvn.com/news/local/state-of-emergency-declared-for-florida/ …
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