TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 12, 2018... 1014 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
western Caribbean Sea is associated with a trough of low pressure.
This area of disturbed weather is expected to move westward to
northwestward over Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during
the next couple of days, and little development is expected during
that time due to unfavorable upper-level winds.  Environmental
conditions could become slightly more conducive for some development
when the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the
end of the week.  Regardless of development, this disturbance will
likely produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua,
Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula through
Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

--------------------------------------------------------------

ralphstropicalweather.com 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AND STORM INVEST UPDATE JUNE 11, 2018... 0405 PM EDT

 National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Currently, three tropical waves are observed between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. 

A tropical wave is along 25W from 02N-12N. This wave shows up 
as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product. Currently, 
showers are limited near the wave's axis. African dust surrounds 
the wave limiting convection.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 14N42W to 05N45W. This wave
was repositioned after analyzing current observations and model 
diagnostics. This wave shows up as a low amplitude moisture surge 
on the TPW product. Scattered showers are near the southern end of
the wave's axis south of 10N between 43W-48W. Saharan dust 
surrounds the northern half of the wave limiting convection.

Another tropical wave is along 54W/55W from 05N-16N. The wave 
coincides with a surge of moistened air, as noted in TPW imagery.
This wave was repositioned after analyzing this data, current
observations, and model diagnostics. Scattered showers are noted 
south of 08N between 55W-58W.

A tropical wave is moving across Hispaniola. This wave was 
repositioned after analyzing current observations/satellite
imagery, and model diagnostics. Its axis is along 70W south of 
19N. Scattered showers are noted along the axis.

A tropical wave is moving across the Bay of Campeche, with axis  
along 92W. This wave is forecast to weaken as it enters the EPAC 
region.

Storm Investigation

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111741
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of showers and thunderstorms has persisted over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea for the past several hours. This activity
is associated with a tropical wave over northwestern Venezuela and
a surface trough located just east of Nicaragua interacting with a
large upper-level trough.  Little development of this area of
disturbed weather is expected over the next few days due to
interaction with Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula. However,
environmental conditions could become somewhat more conducive for
some limited development when the system moves into the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week.  Regardless of development,
this disturbance will produce locally heavy rainfall across portions
of Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula
through Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart...NHC

ralphstropicalweather.com

 

TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 11, 2018...0931 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Currently, three tropical waves are observed between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. 

A tropical wave is along 22W from 02N-12N. This wave shows up 
well as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product. 
Currently, convection is limited near the wave's axis. African 
dust surrounds the wave limiting convection.

A tropical wave is along 32W/33W from 02N-13N moving westward 15 
to 20 kt. This wave shows up well as a low amplitude moisture 
surge on the TPW product. Scattered showers are near the southern 
end of the wave's axis. Saharan dust surrounds the wave limiting 
convection.

Another tropical wave is along 47W/48W from 03N-13N. The wave 
coincides with a surge of moistened air. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 06N-08N between 42W-47W.

A tropical wave is moving across Hispaniola. Its axis is along 
71W south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated tstms are noted over Hispaniola in association with this
system, forecast to move west through the central Caribbean today
reaching the west Caribbean waters on Tue and Wed. 

A tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan Peninsula and 
Guatemala, with axis along 91W. This wave is forecast to weaken as
it enters the EPAC region.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

I will continue to monitor the Northwest and Southern Caribbean for 
development even though the GFS has now changed the forecast to No 
development.  For the past two weeks the model has been persistently
saying development and now it has changed its tune.  So just to being 
cautious, I will continue to monitor during this week...RTW

NOTICE TO MY VIEWERS:  I WILL BE CELEBRATING MY 38 WEDDING
ANNIVERSARY TOMORROW TUESDAY JUNE 12, 2018.  I WILL POST
THE MORNING TROPICAL UPDATE BUT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO POST
THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.  I WILL RESUME NORMAL UPDATES ON
WEDNESDAY JUNE 13, 2018.  SORRY FOR THE INCONVENIENCE.
Ralph's Tropical Weather (RTW)

ralphstropicalweather.com

  

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK EVENING EDITION JUNE 10, 2018 0927 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W from 11N
southward. The Hovmoller Diagram clearly indicates the westward 
propagation of the wave, and model diagnostics guidance also 
suggests the presence of this system. This wave shows up well
as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered convective debris
clouds, from earlier and already-dissipated precipitation, cover
the area from 03N to 10N between 16W and 26W. it is possible that 
isolated moderate rainshowers may remain in the area of
cloudiness.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W from 12N southward 
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. This wave shows up well as a low 
amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product. Precipitation: 
isolated moderate rainshowers are in the ITCZ from 04N to 08N 
between 29W and 36W. 

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W based on the TPW
animation. The wave coincides with a good surge of moistened air.
Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 02N to 10N
between 37W and 47W. 

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, starting to move 
across Hispaniola, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate rainshowers are from 16N to 22N between 63W and
71W. 

A tropical wave is along 88W/89W, moving across the Yucatan 
Peninsula and northern Central America. The wave is interacting 
with an upper level trough, with continued development of
rainshowers in parts of the western Caribbean Sea, northern 
Central America, and the Yucatan Peninsula. 

---------------------------------------------------------------

I continue monitoring the Northwest Caribbean for tropical cyclone 

formation during the this week as the GFS continues suggesting low 

pressure could possibly develop, and eventually move into the Gulf of 

Mexico.  

An upper level trough has dropped into the northwest Caribbean adding 
some instability for the formation of showers and storms over the southern 
Caribbean and a portion of the northwest Caribbean as it interacts with a 
tropical wave near the Yucatan.  This instability if it persist could be the 
start of an area of disturbed weather and low pressure that the GFS has 
been forecasting for 2 weeks now.  I will continue to monitor this area for
development during the coming week...RTW

ralphstropicalweather.com

EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE BUD ADVISORY JUN 10, 2018

National Hurricane Center

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 102339
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
700 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

...BUD CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 104.7W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bud was located
near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 104.7 West. Bud is moving toward
the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with a
gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the core of Bud and its stronger winds
are expected to remain offshore of the southwestern coast of
mainland Mexico during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Bud is forecast to strengthen rapidly during the
next 24 hours or so, but weakening is expected to begin by late
Tuesday or early Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 145
miles (230 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Bud is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of
3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches through
Tuesday afternoon over portions of southwestern Mexico. These rains
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas of
high terrain.

SURF:  Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
beginning Monday afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi 

 STORM WIND FIELD RADIUS AND NHC FORECAST TRACK BY RTW

 CURRENT GUIDANCE MODEL RUN

 CMC COMBO MODEL RUN

 H-MODEL COMBO RUN

 UKMET COMBO MODEL RUN

 ADDITIONAL GRAPHICS CURRENT MODEL RUN

 LATE MODEL RUN

 GFS ENSEMBLE MODEL RUN

ATLANTIC TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 10, 2018...1024 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Currently, two tropical waves are observed between the coast of 
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Two tropical waves are moving 
across the Caribbean Sea. 

A tropical wave is along 29W/30W from 4N-14N moving westward 15 
to 20 kt. This wave shows up well as a low amplitude moisture 
surge on the TPW product. Currently, scattered showers are near
the southern end of the wave's axis. African dust surrounds the 
wave.

A second tropical wave extends its axis along 40W south of 15N, 
moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate 
convection is seen where the waves axis meets the ITCZ. Saharan 
dust also surrounds the wave.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis 
is along 65W/66W south of 18N, moving westward 15 to 20 kt. A 
patch of low level moisture with embedded showers is associated 
with the wave, affecting Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The 
wave will reach Hispaniola late today. 

A tropical wave is along 88W moving west at 10 kt. The wave is
interacting with an upper-level trough resulting in continued 
thunderstorm development across parts of the western Caribbean and
northern Central America. Scattered showers and tstms are now
observed near the northern end of the wave's axis. affecting the
east part of the Yucatan Peninsula.

----------------------------------------------------------------

There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time...RTW

ralphstropicalweather.com

LATE AFTERNOON TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 9, 2018...0556 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Currently, two tropical waves are observed between the coast of 
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Two tropical waves are moving 
across the Caribbean Sea. 

A tropical wave is along 21W from 4N-13N moving westward 15 to 20
kt. The Hovmoller Diagram indicates the westward propagation of 
the wave, and model diagnostics guidance also suggests the presence
of this system. This wave shows up well as a low amplitude moisture
surge on the TPW product. Currently, convection is limited along 
the wave's axis due to the presence of African dust.

A second tropical wave extends its axis along 35W/36W south of 
15N, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
seen where the waves axis meets the ITCZ. Saharan dust surrounds 
the wave.

A tropical wave has entered the Caribbean Sea. Its axis is along 
62W south of 18N, moving westward 15 to 20 kt. A patch of low
level moisture with embedded showers is associated with the wave,
affecting parts of the Lesser Antilles. The wave will pass south
of Puerto Rico tonight, and reach Hispaniola on Sun.

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean Sea around
10 kt. Its axis is along 86W, south of 18N. The wave will pass 
west through the Gulf of Honduras through this evening and interact
with an upper-level trough resulting in continued thunderstorm 
development across parts of the western Caribbean and northern 
Central America.

------------------------------------------------------------------

There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time...RTW

  ralphstropicalweather.com

TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 9, 2018...1220 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W from 13N southward
moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Convection is limited near the wave 
axis.

A second Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis along 
34W south of 15N, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers
are noted where the wave meets the ITCZ.

A third Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W, south of 
15N, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection
is near the southern end of the wave's axis.

A Caribbean Sea/Central America tropical wave is moving through
Honduras and Nicaragua, from 18N southward along 85W, moving 
westward 10 knots. The wave is interacting with an upper level 
trough, extending from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan 
Peninsula. This will help to induce precipitation across Central 
America and the western Caribbean Sea during the weekend.

----------------------------------------------------------------

There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time...RTW

ralphstropicalweather.com

AFTERNOON TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 8, 2018...0342 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Currently, three tropical waves are noted between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

A tropical wave is added to the 1200 UTC analysis/surface map 
along 15W from 5N-13N. The Hovmoller Diagram indicates the 
westward propagation of the wave, and model diagnostics guidance 
also suggests the presence of this system. A cluster of moderate 
convection is noted within about 150 nm ahead of the wave's axis 
from 7N-10N.

A second tropical wave extends its axis along 33W south of 15N, 
moving westward 15 to 20 kt. Convection is limited along the 
wave's axis.

Another tropical wave is along 53W/54W, south of 15N, moving 
westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where
the wave's axis meets the ITCZ. 

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean Sea around
10 kt. Its axis is along 84W, south of 17N. Scattered showers and
tstms are behind the wave's axis over the SW Caribbean, affecting
mainly the waters S of 12N. Moisture associated with the wave will
spread across northern Central America the rest of today and Sat.
An upper-level trough extending over the eastern Gulf of Mexico 
and the Yucatan Peninsula will also help to induce convection 
across Central America and the western Caribbean this upcoming
weekend.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time...RTW

ralphstropicalweather.com 

TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 8, 2018...1026 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis along 32W and 
south of 15N, moving westward at about 15 kt. This wave is noted 
at 700 mb. Convection is limited along the wave's axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis along 53W, south of
15N, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. This wave is noted at 700 mb. 
Scattered moderate convection is where the wave's axis meets the
ITCZ.  

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends its axis along 83W, south of
17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is moving through 
the area of an already-existing convection mainly due to an upper-
level trough that extends across the western Caribbean. 

-------------------------------------------------------------------

There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time...RTW

ralphstropicalweather.com

AFTERNOON TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 7, 2018...0319 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W south of 13N, 
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate
rainshowers elsewhere from 10N to 20N from 30W eastward.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W/50W from 13N 
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. no significant
precipitation. 

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W/80W, from 18N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. No significant 
convective precipitation. The wave is moving through the area of
an already-existing upper level trough.

A tropical wave is moving through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico, along 94W, moving westward 10 knots. 
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible in interior sections of
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.

---------------------------------------------------------------

There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time...RTW 

 ralphstropicalweather.com

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

602
WUUS52 KMFL 071822
SVRMFL
FLC011-086-099-071900-
/O.NEW.KMFL.SV.W.0015.180607T1822Z-180607T1900Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Miami FL
222 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2018

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northern Miami-Dade County in southeastern Florida...
  Broward County in southeastern Florida...
  Southeastern Palm Beach County in southeastern Florida...

* Until 300 PM EDT.

* At 221 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Pompano Beach to Oak Point, moving northeast at
  20 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
           to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Fort Lauderdale, Pembroke Pines, Hollywood, Miramar and Pompano
  Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service
office in Miami. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2640 8001 2606 8006 2595 8028 2604 8029
      2622 8025
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 213DEG 17KT 2625 8013 2603 8019

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

13

TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 7, 2018...1028 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W south of 13N, 
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: Scattered moderate
rainshowers from 05N-10N between 21W-28W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W/49W from 13N 
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. 

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W/78W, from Jamaica
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. No significant 
convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery due to 
Saharan dust. 

A tropical wave is moving through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico, along 92W/93W, moving westward 10 knots.
Precipitation:  Scattered moderate convection is observed along 
the wave's axis mainly south of 19N. 

--------------------------------------------------------------- 

There are no signs of tropical cyclone of formation at this time...RTW

 ralphstropicalweather.com