Monday, August 6, 2018

TROPICAL OUTLOOK AUG 6, 2018... 0410 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center
155 
AXNT20 KNHC 061739
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
139 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale warning over the south-central Caribbean...

A strong ridge over the E CONUS extending E to Atlc adjacent waters
W of 60W will tighten the pressure gradient in the south-central 
Caribbean. Wind gusts reaching gale-force are expected starting 
tonight, then sustained gale-force winds are forecast for the 
Gulf of Venezuela on Tue night and along the coast of Colombia by 
Wed night. Please see the National Hurricane Center Atlantic High 
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for 
further details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis extending 
from 07N-18N along 35W, moving W at 10 kt. This wave continues to
be affected by Saharan dry air and dust intrusion, which is 
limiting convection to the area where the wave meets the ITCZ from
09N-12N and west of 35W. 

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending 
from 01N-14N along 48W, moving W at about 10-15 kt. The wave 
continues to be affected by intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust
as indicated by GOES-16 RGBs, water vapor and CIRA LPW imagery at
the lower levels. Shallow moisture in the vicinity of the ITCZ 
supports scattered moderate convection mainly S of 10N. 

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis S of 21N along 
70W, moving W at 5-10 kt. The wave is in a very moist environment
at the lower levels as indicated by CIRA LPW and GOES-16 water 
vapor imagery. The wave is underneath a diffluent environment 
between an elongated upper-level low over the central basin and 
S-SW flow to the E, which is supporting scattered showers N of 
17N between 68W-72W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis S of 21N along 
80W, moving W at 10 kt. CIRA LPW imagery shows shallow moisture 
associated with the wave. Shallow moisture in the vicinity of the 
monsoon trough supports scattered moderate convection mainly S of 
10N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 20N16W to 
14N31W. The ITCZ begins W of a tropical wave near 10N38W and 
continues to 08N46W, then resumes near 07N51W to 09N61W. Aside 
from the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered 
moderate convection is observed along the ITCZ. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad area of high pressure extends from eastern CONUS across
the basin. A surface trough extends across the northwest Gulf
along 96W and north of 27N. Scattered moderate convection is
observed with this trough mainly north of 25N and west of 94W.
Another trough extends across the Bay of Campeche with scattered
showers. Return flow provided by the surface ridge continues to 
advect shallow moisture from the Caribbean and into the Gulf, 
which is supporting scattered moderate convection across the 
Yucatan Channel and south-central Gulf waters between 84W-90W. 
A third surface trough is in the far east Gulf from the Florida 
Big Bend to 29N84W with no significant convection at this time.

Expect for convection to continue across the west Gulf through 
tonight. Isolated showers are forecast in the Bay of Campeche 
through the middle of the week associated with a thermal surface 
trough that will come off the Yucatan Peninsula at night. This 
trough will also enhance the winds to fresh off the W Yucatan 
Peninsula. Surface ridging is forecast to prevail through the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GOES-16 RGBs continue to show a thin layer of Saharan dust moving
across most of the basin where strong deep-layer wind shear 
prevails. This environment continues to suppress the development 
of significant convection across the basin. However, shallow 
moisture is across the basin supporting scattered showers within 
90 nm off the southwest of Cuba. To the south, the monsoon trough
supports similar convection within 75 nm off Panama. A tropical 
wave is in the W Caribbean lacking convection, while an upper-
level low over Hispaniola is supporting convection near the 
northern portion of the wave currently along 70W. See the 
Tropical Waves section above for further details. Fresh to near-
gale force winds in the south-central Caribbean are forecast to 
increase to gale-force gusts in the Gulf of Venezuela and off the 
coast of Colombia by tonight, then sustained gale-force winds 
will develop through midweek. See the Special Features section for
further details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details. A non-tropical, surface low pressure 
system centered near 31N50W is interacting with a broad upper- 
level low. Although the system is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms to the east and northeast of the center, environmental
conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for the low
to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while it moves
north or north-northeastward over the next day or so.  The low is
forecast to move over cooler waters by Tuesday night, and
development is not expected after that time. Southeast of this 
low, a surface trough extends from it to 26N57W supporting 
scattered showers and tstms N of 30N between 40W-50W. Aside from 
the tropical waves, the remainder of the Atlc is under the 
influence of surface high pressure that supports fair weather.


For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
 
470 
ABNT20 KNHC 061740
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure system centered about 1100 miles
west-southwest of the Azores is interacting with an upper-level low.
Although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has
increased during the past 24 hours, environmental conditions are
expected to be only marginally conducive for additional development
while the system moves north or north-northeastward over the next
day or so.  The low is forecast to move over cooler waters Tuesday
night, and development is not expected after that time.  Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Brown 
-----------------------------------------------------------------
 No change in the tropics.  Invest 97L has a chance for development
as it begins to track northeast away from present location.  97L
is only a threat to shipping... RTW 
 
Please note that the latest guidance model for 18z has not yet been
released.  So all I have is the 12z model run.  I may not be able to
post this evening, so click on image to go to NHC and tropical tidbits
for latest info and models...RTW 


TROPIC OUTLOOK AUG 6, 2018... 1011 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center
743 
AXNT20 KNHC 061149
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
749 AM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale warning in the south-central Caribbean...

A strong ridge over the E CONUS extending E to Atlc adjacent waters
W of 60W will tighten the pressure gradient in the south-central 
Caribbean early this week as a tropical wave moves W of
Hispaniola. Gale force winds are forecast for the Gulf of
Venezuela Tue night and along the coast of Colombia Wed night.
Please see the National Hurricane Center Atlantic High Seas 
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
further details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 
07N-18N along 34W, moving W at 10-15 kt. CIRA LPW imagery show 
abundant shallow moisture in the wave environment. However, the 
wave continues to be affected by Saharan dry air and dust 
intrusion, which is limiting convection to isolated showers from 
10N-12N between 32W-37W. 

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 
05N-16N along 46W, moving W at about 10 kt. The wave continues to
be severely affected by intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust as 
indicated by GOES-16 RGBs, water vapor and CIRA LPW imagery at the
lower levels. Shallow moisture in the vicinity of the ITCZ 
supports scattered moderate convection mainly S of 10N. 

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis S of 21N along 
70W, moving W at 5-10 kt. The wave is in a very moist environment
at the lower levels as indicated by CIRA LPW and GOES-16 water 
vapor imagery. The wave is underneath a diffluent environment 
between an elongated upper-level low over the central basin and 
S-SW flow to the E, which is supporting scattered showers N of 
16N between 65W-70W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis S of 21N along 
79W, moving W at 10 kt. CIRA LPW imagery shows shallow moisture 
associated with the wave. Shallow moisture in the vicinity of the
monsoon trough supports scattered moderate convection mainly S of
10N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 18N16W to 11N30W to 10N42W. The 
ITCZ begins W of a tropical wave near 07N48W and continues to 
08N55W to 09N59W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is observed along
the monsoon trough between 37W-42 and along the ITCZ. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Bermuda high extends a ridge axis SW across the Florida
Peninsula to the SW Gulf of Mexico, where a weakness in the ridge
is analyzed as a surface trough from 28N95W to the Bay of Campeche
near 18N92W. Scattered showers prevail along the trough. Return 
flow provided by the ridge continues to advect shallow moisture 
from the Caribbean and SW N Atlc waters into the Gulf, which is 
supporting scattered moderate convection across the Yucatan 
Channel and south-central Gulf waters between 85W-88W. Another 
surface trough is in the far east Gulf from the Florida Big Bend 
to 31N84W to 26N84W with scattered showers. 

Expect for convection to continue across the west Gulf through 
tonight. Isolated showers are forecast in the Bay of Campeche 
through the middle of the week associated with a thermal surface 
trough that will come off the Yucatan Peninsula at night. This 
trough will also enhance the winds to fresh off the W Yucatan 
Peninsula. Surface ridging is forecast to prevail through the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GOES-16 RGBs continue to show a thin layer of Saharan dust moving
across most of the basin where strong deep-layer wind shear 
prevails. This environment continues to suppress the development 
of significant convection in the region. However, shallow 
moisture is across the basin supporting scattered showers and 
tstms within 90 nm off the S coast of Cuba. The monsoon trough 
supports similar convection within 120 nm off southern Panama. A 
tropical wave is in the W Caribbean lacking convection while an 
upper-level low over the central basin supports scattered showers
in the vicinity of a tropical wave just W of the Mona Passage. 
See the tropical waves section for further details. Fresh to 
near-gale force winds in the south-central Caribbean are forecast
to increase to gale-force in the Gulf of Venezuela and off the 
coast of Colombia Wed and Thu, respectively. See the Special 
Features section for further details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details. A non-tropical, surface low pressure 
system centered near 31N50W is interacting with a broad upper- 
level low. Although thunderstorm activity has increased near and 
to the east of the low-level center, environmental conditions are 
expected to be only marginally conducive for the low to acquire 
subtropical or tropical characteristics while it moves little over
the next day or so. By this afternoon, the low is expected to 
move toward the north or north-northeast and continue that motion 
through Tuesday. SE of this low, a surface trough extends from 
31N45W to 25N53W to 26N64W supporting scattered showers and tstms 
N of 29N between 43W-50W. Aside from the tropical waves, the 
remainder of the Atlc is under the influence of surface high 
pressure that supports fair weather.


For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Ramos/ERA
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
------------------------------------------------------------------
Other than INVEST 97L the tropics remain quiet... RTW
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/ 
Latest 12z Guidance Models
 Late Guidance models
 GFS Ensemble
 

Saturday, August 4, 2018

TROPICAL OUTLOOK AUG 4, 2018...0413 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center
859 
AXNT20 KNHC 041802
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
202 PM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W/22W from 17N 
southward. Please refer to the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section for 
the details about the precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W/29W from 17N 
southward. Please refer to the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section for 
the details about the precipitation. 

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W from 19N 
southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover 
the waters from 10N to 17N between 50W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W from 20N 
southward. The wave is moving through an area of pre-existing 
upper level cyclonic wind flow. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers cover the waters from 17N southward between 
55W and 72W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W/87W from 20N 
southward. The wave is moving through an area of pre-existing 
upper level cyclonic wind flow.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
and Mauritania near near 16N16W, to 10N28W and 09N33W. The ITCZ 
continues from 09N33W to 09N38W 11N49W, and 12N55W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 60 nm 
to 120 nm on either side of the line that runs from 13N20W to 
09N27W to 09N32W to 07N35W. isolated moderate rainshowers are 
elsewhere from 10N southward between 35W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough passes through the Texas coastal plains,
into Mexico near 20N103W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers
the areas from the Texas coastal plains and coastal waters, into
central Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers cover the Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward.

A surface trough is along 28N85W 25N85W 22N86W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Gulf of Mexico
from 90W eastward.

The current 28N85W 22N86W surface trough will move westward 
across the southern and central waters through Sunday night, 
accompanied by scattered rainshowers with thunder. Surface 
troughs moving offshore the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh 
to locally strong wind speeds in the eastern waters of the Bay of
Campeche from the evenings to late at night during the next few 
days. Surface high pressure will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, remaining for the upper level trough of the last
few days. Middle level cyclonic wind flow is in the coastal areas
and inland areas of Honduras and Nicaragua. scattered strong
rainshowers cover the areas that are from 14N to 18N between 82W
and 86W, in the coastal waters and the coastal plains of Honduras
and Nicaragua.

An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 21N63W 
cyclonic circulation center, into the eastern Caribbean Sea, to 
the coast of Venezuela along 67W/68W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers cover the waters from 17N southward between 
55W and 72W. A tropical wave is along 55W/56W, moving into the 
area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow.

Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are between Cuba, 
Haiti, and Jamaica.

The monsoon trough is along 09N74W to 09N79W, beyond 10N86W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are 
elsewhere in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, away from the 
Honduras-Nicaragua precipitation, from 12N southward from 75W 
westward.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected in the central 
Caribbean Sea and in the Gulf of Honduras through Wednesday 
night. The strongest wind speeds will pulse to 30 knots near 
12N74W during the overnight hours, and the sea heights may reach
10 to 12 feet. It is possible that the wind speeds may approach 
minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia late on Wednesday 
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow and comparatively drier air in
subsidence cover the Atlantic Ocean from the Bahamas northward 
between 71W and 76W. 

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 33N44W. Large-
scale cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N 
northward between 20W and 60W. A stationary front is along 33N37W
31N40W, to a 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 32N45W. The
stationary front continues to a 1015 mb low pressure center that
is near 32N51W. A cold front continues from the 1015 mb low
pressure center, to 28N56W, 28N60W, to 32N70W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean
from 25N northward between 39W and 52W. isolated moderate
rainshowers accompany the cold front from 26N northward between
50W and 70W. 

The wind speeds will pulse to strong speeds near the northern 
coast of Hispaniola each night through Wednesday night. The trade
trade winds, elsewhere across the region, will diminish gradually
through early next week. An Atlantic Ocean ridge will weaken, 
with a backdoor cold front moving southward. The front will 
weaken into a trough by Sunday evening. It is possible that weak 
low pressure may develop along the trough through early next week.
A surface ridge will re-develop by the middle of the next week as
the trough dissipates.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST 97L 
020 
ABNT20 KNHC 041747
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a non-tropical low pressure system
centered about 850 miles west-southwest of the Azores remains
limited.  However, the low could gradually acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics while it moves southwestward over the next
day or two, and then lifts back to the northeast and remains over
warm water through Tuesday.  Additional information on this low
pressure area can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Berg
-------------------------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 4, 2018... 1045 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center
635 
AXNT20 KNHC 041204
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 AM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W from 17N southward.
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the area
that is from 10N to 14N between 20W and 24W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W from 17N southward.
isolated moderate rainshowers are in the area that is from 08N to
14N between 25W and 30W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W/54W from 19N southward.
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from
10N to 1N between 55W and 60W. 

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W from 20N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. isolated moderate rainshowers 
are in the area that is from 10N to 17N between 60W and 71W. 

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W from 202N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. The wave is moving into the 
area of a pre-existing upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a 
trough.

A tropical wave is along 94W/95W from 20N southward, from the SW 
corner of the Gulf of Mexico into the eastern Pacific Ocean. 
rainshowers are possible within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of 
the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
and Gambia near near 13N17W, to 12N21W, 12N25W, and 11N32W. The 
ITCZ continues from 11N32W to 08N43W, 07N48W, and 07N56W. 
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong 
rainshowers are from 08N to 13N between Africa and 31W. isolated 
moderate rainshowers are from 03N to 16N between 31W and 60W. 
Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section for more information 
about precipitation.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow from a trough spans the NW corner 
of the Gulf of Mexico, the Texas coastal waters, and interior
sections of Mexico from 20N northward from the Texas Big Bend
eastward. The upper level trough was being associated with a 
stationary front during the last few days. The southwesternmost
point of the stationary front now is in west central Louisiana.
One surface trough is in the northeast and north central Gulf of
Mexico, from the Florida Panhandle to SE Louisiana, and to 26N93W.
A second surface trough is along 28N95W 25N96W 20N97W. widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Gulf
of Mexico to the west of the line from 30N86W 24N90W 19N92W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 87W
eastward. The cyclonic wind flow is related to the upper level 
trough that extends from the NW Bahamas to coastal Nicaragua. widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the 
Straits of Florida, parts of Cuba, and the Caribbean Sea to the 
south of Cuba from 18N to 25N between 74W and 85W, and in the Gulf
of Mexico from 24N northward between 83W and 87W. 

The northern part of a tropical wave will cross the southern Gulf
this weekend. Surface troughs moving W from the Yucatan Peninsula
will produce fresh to locally strong winds over the eastern 
waters of the Bay of Campeche from sunset to around midnight. 
Otherwise, high pressure ridging will prevail in the wake of the 
tropical wave. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the NW Bahamas, across the
western half of Cuba, into the coastal sections of Nicaragua.
Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are in the coastal areas
of Nicaragua from 11N to 14N between 82W and 85W. widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Straits of
Florida, parts of Cuba, and the Caribbean Sea to the south of Cuba
from 18N to 25N between 74W and 85W, and in the Gulf of Mexico
from 24N northward between 83W and 87W. isolated moderate
rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N to 15N between 78W and 81W.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 14N to 16N between 68W and
74W, in an area of scattered to broken low level clouds.

An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 21N56W
cyclonic circulation center, to 15N59W, toward Venezuela and
Trinidad. A tropical wave is moving through the same area.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia and 
beyond 83W/84W in southern Costa Rica. Isolated moderate 
rainshowers are elsewhere in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, 
away from the Nicaragua precipitation, from 11N southward from 76W
westward. 

Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected in the central 
Caribbean Sea and in the Gulf of Honduras through Wednesday 
night. The strongest wind speeds will pulse to 30 knots near 
12N74W during the overnight hours, and the sea heights may reach
10 to 12 feet. It is possible that the wind speeds may approach 
minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia late on Wednesday 
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow and comparatively drier air in
subsidence cover the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 
66W and 73W. 

Large-scale cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward between 20W and 60W. The comparatively greatest amount
of cyclonic wind flow is associated with a cyclonic circulation
center that is near 37N40W. A cold front passes through 32N36W to
30N40W and 32N45W. A stationary front continues northwestward to a
1016 mb low pressure center that is near 35N50W. A cold front
continues from the low pressure center, through 32N55W, to 31N60W,
to Bermuda, and to 34N67W. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are from 30N to 32N between 45W and 47W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 24N northward between 40W
and 52W, and from 30N northward between 50W and 70W. .

The wind speeds will pulse to strong speeds near the northern 
coast of Hispaniola each night through Wednesday night. The trade
trade winds, elsewhere across the region, will diminish gradually
through early next week. An Atlantic Ocean ridge will weaken, 
with a backdoor cold front moving southward. The front will 
weaken into a trough by Sunday evening. It is possible that weak 
low pressure may develop along the trough through early next week.
A surface ridge will re-develop by the middle of the next week as
the trough dissipates.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The Central Atlantic between Africa and the lesser 
Antilles remains suppressed by Sahara dust and dry
air...RTW 
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/ 
National Hurricane Center
858 
ABNT20 KNHC 041153
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure system located about 800 miles
west-southwest of the Azores is producing gale-force wind gusts
northeast of its center.  Although associated shower activity is
currently limited, the low could gradually acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics over the next few days while it moves
southwestward at about 10 mph over warmer water.  Additional
information on this low pressure area can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Berg
------------------------------------------------------------------
A non-tropical low that has been producing gale 
force winds the past few days over the north Atlantic
is being monitored for tropical cyclone formation. 
This system is not a threat to land and has a low 
chance for development 10% within 
48 hours and a low chance for development 20% 
within 5-days... RTW
Latest Guidance 12z 
 Late Guidance Model
 GFS Ensemble Model
 
 
 
 

Friday, August 3, 2018

TROPICAL OUTLOOK AUG 3, 2018... 0310 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center
168 
AXNT20 KNHC 031756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
156 PM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W/22W from 21N 
southward. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong 
rainshowers are from 08N to 13N between Africa and 31W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W from 18N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. isolated moderate rainshowers 
are from 05N to 14N between 36W and 50W. some of the 
precipitation is possibly more related to the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W from 19N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. isolated moderate rainshowers 
are from 06N to 16N between 50W and 60W. some of the 
precipitation is possibly more related to the ITCZ.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W/80W from 22N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. The wave is moving into the 
area of a pre-existing area of upper level cyclonic wind flow, 
with a trough.

A tropical wave is along 94W/95W from 20N southward, from the SW 
corner of the Gulf of Mexico into the eastern Pacific Ocean. 
rainshowers are possible within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of 
the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
and Gambia near near 13N17W, to 12N21W, 12N25W, and 11N32W. The 
ITCZ continues from 11N32W to 08N43W, 07N48W, and 07N56W. 
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong 
rainshowers are from 08N to 13N between Africa and 31W. isolated 
moderate rainshowers are from 03N to 16N between 31W and 60W. 
Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section for more information 
about precipitation.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow from a trough spans the NW corner 
of the Gulf of Mexico, the Texas coastal waters, and interior
sections of Mexico from 20N northward from the Texas Big Bend
eastward. The upper level trough was being associated with a 
stationary front during the last few days. The southwesternmost
point of the stationary front now is in west central Louisiana.
One surface trough is in the northeast and north central Gulf of
Mexico, from the Florida Panhandle to SE Louisiana, and to 26N93W.
A second surface trough is along 28N95W 25N96W 20N97W. widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Gulf
of Mexico to the west of the line from 30N86W 24N90W 19N92W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 87W
eastward. The cyclonic wind flow is related to the upper level 
trough that extends from the NW Bahamas to coastal Nicaragua. widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the 
Straits of Florida, parts of Cuba, and the Caribbean Sea to the 
south of Cuba from 18N to 25N between 74W and 85W, and in the Gulf
of Mexico from 24N northward between 83W and 87W. 

The current Florida Panhandle-to-26N93W surface trough will shift
W and inland through tonight. The northern extent of the current
78W/80W tropical wave will move through the Straits of Florida 
tonight, and across the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. 
Surface troughs moving W from the Yucatan Peninsula will produce 
fresh to locally strong winds in the eastern waters of the Bay of
Campeche from sunset to midnight. High pressure will prevail in 
the wake of the tropical wave. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the NW Bahamas, across the
western half of Cuba, into the coastal sections of Nicaragua.
Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are in the coastal areas
of Nicaragua from 11N to 14N between 82W and 85W. widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Straits of
Florida, parts of Cuba, and the Caribbean Sea to the south of Cuba
from 18N to 25N between 74W and 85W, and in the Gulf of Mexico
from 24N northward between 83W and 87W. isolated moderate
rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N to 15N between 78W and 81W.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 14N to 16N between 68W and
74W, in an area of scattered to broken low level clouds.

An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 21N56W
cyclonic circulation center, to 15N59W, toward Venezuela and
Trinidad. A tropical wave is moving through the same area.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia and 
beyond 83W/84W in southern Costa Rica. Isolated moderate 
rainshowers are elsewhere in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, 
away from the Nicaragua precipitation, from 11N southward from 76W
westward. 

Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected in the central 
Caribbean Sea and in the Gulf of Honduras through Tuesday night. 
The strongest wind speeds will pulse to 30 knots near 12N74W 
during the overnight hours, where the sea heights occasionally 
will build to 10 to 12 feet.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow and comparatively drier air in
subsidence cover the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 
66W and 73W. 

Large-scale cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward between 20W and 60W. The comparatively greatest amount
of cyclonic wind flow is associated with a cyclonic circulation
center that is near 37N40W. A cold front passes through 32N36W to
30N40W and 32N45W. A stationary front continues northwestward to a
1016 mb low pressure center that is near 35N50W. A cold front
continues from the low pressure center, through 32N55W, to 31N60W,
to Bermuda, and to 34N67W. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are from 30N to 32N between 45W and 47W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 24N northward between 40W
and 52W, and from 30N northward between 50W and 70W. .

The wind speeds will pulse to strong speeds near the northern 
coast of Hispaniola each night through Tuesday night. The trade
trade winds, elsewhere across the region, will diminish gradually 
through early next week. An Atlantic Ocean ridge will weaken, 
with a backdoor cold front moving southward. The front will 
dissipate into a trough through the end of the weekend. It is 
possible that weak low pressure may develop along the trough 
through early next week. A surface ridge will re-develop by the 
middle of the week as the trough dissipates.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
-----------------------------------------------------------------
The tropics remain quiet no change and will remain 
this way during the next few days...RTW

TODAYS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK AUG 3, 2018

3h3 hours ago
Today's Updated Thunderstorm Outlook.


PARTE IMPORTANTE DE SU PREPARACION PARA HURACANES...

1h1 hour ago
Parte importante de su preparación para huracanes es que conozca su zona. La marejada de tormenta ocurre cuando el agua del océano es empujada hacia la orilla por la fuerza de tormentas tropicales o huracanes. Averigüe en qué zona reside:


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 3, 2018... 1051 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center
472 
AXNT20 KNHC 031204
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 AM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W from 20N
southward. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 09N to 12N between Africa and 20W.
scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are about 100 nm to the
south of the monsoon trough, from 10N to 12N between 20W and 28W. 

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W from 19N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. isolated moderate rainshowers
are from 06N to 14N between 36W and 50W. some of the precipitation
is possibly more related to the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W from 19N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. isolated moderate rainshowers
are from 06N to 13N between 50W and 60W. some of the 
precipitation is possibly more related to the ITCZ.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W/77W from 21N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. The wave is moving into the
area of a pre-existing area of upper level cyclonic wind flow,
with a trough and a cyclonic circulation center.

A tropical wave is along 93W/94W from 20N southward, from the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
rainshowers are possible within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of
the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
and Gambia near near 13N17W, to 12N30W, and 13N39W. The ITCZ 
continues from 08N44W to 09N49W, and 10N56W. Precipitation: 
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers, in general, are
from 09N to 12N between Africa and 28W. Please refer to the
TROPICAL WAVES section for more information about precipitation.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico,
in the Texas coastal waters. The upper level trough is associated
with a frontal boundary that extends from SE Louisiana to east 
Texas and into south central Texas. A surface trough extends from
south central Georgia, through SE Louisiana, toward the coast of
Mexico near 24N. Precipitation:

isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the Straits
of Florida between 79W and 82W, around the periphery of the SE 
Cuba cyclonic circulation center. Widely scattered moderate to 
isolated strong rainshowers are to the north of the line that 
extends from 27N82W along the Florida west coast, to 23N90W, to 
22N98W along the coast of Mexico.

A surface trough is along the line from 23N94W to 17N95W in the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from land to 23N
between 90W and 95W.

The current Alabama-to-south Texas surface trough will wander 
in the western Gulf of Mexico between 85W and 95W through Friday,
and then it will dissipate. It is likely that widespread 
rainshowers with thunder may be in the vicinity of the trough, 
increasing in intensity by late afternoon and evening. A surface 
trough will form each day across the Yucatan Peninsula, and then 
move across the Bay of Campeche at night. Fresh to locally strong
winds will be possible in the eastern waters of the Bay of 
Campeche from sunset to midnight.

A surface trough extending from southern Louisiana 
to the western Bay of Campeche will shift W and inland through 
tonight. The northern extent of a tropical wave will move through 
the Straits of Florida tonight and across the southern Gulf this 
weekend. Surface troughs moving W from the Yucatan Peninsula will 
produce fresh to locally strong winds over the eastern waters of 
the Bay of Campeche from sunset to around midnight. Otherwise, 
high pressure ridging will prevail in the wake of the tropical 
wave. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through Cuba near 22N80W, into the SW 
corner of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate to strong 
rainshowers are from 11N to 13N between 80W and 86W, from the
coastal waters into the southern half of Nicaragua.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow also covers the NE part of the
area, from 15N to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and 70W.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is present in the area of
cyclonic wind flow.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia and
beyond 83W/84W in southern Costa Rica. Isolated moderate 
rainshowers are elsewhere in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, 
away from the scattered moderate to strong rainshowers that are 
with the upper level trough.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected in the central 
Caribbean Sea and in the Gulf of Honduras through Tuesday night. 
The strongest wind speeds will pulse to 30 knots near 12N74W 
during the overnight hours, where the sea heights occasionally 
will build to 10 to 12 feet.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 31N72W cyclonic circulation 
center, to a 21N80W cyclonic circulation center just off Cuba, to
11N83W in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate
rain showers are in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 
50W and 80W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that 
is near 33N35W, to a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near 
33N66W.

The wind speeds will pulse to strong speeds near the northern 
coast of Hispaniola each night through Tuesday night. The trade
trade winds, elsewhere across the region, will diminish gradually 
through early next week, as a ridge across the Atlantic Ocean weakens
with a backdoor cold front moving southward. The front will 
dissipate into a trough through the end of the weekend. It is
possible that weak low pressure may develop along the trough 
through early next week. A surface Ridge will develop by the 
middle of the week as the trough dissipates.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
---------------------------------------------------------------------
The tropical Atlantic remains quiet due to cool sea 
surface temps and Sahara Dust and Dry air...RTW 

Thursday, August 2, 2018

TROPICAL OUTLOOK AUG 2, 2018... 0332 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center
778 
AXNT20 KNHC 021803
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
203 PM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W from 17N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Rainshowers are possible from
10N to 19N between 30W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W/51W from 19N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Rainshowers are possible from 
10N to 20N between 45W and 56W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/66W from 18N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate rainshowers 
are from 10N to 18N between 60W and 68W. 

A tropical wave is inland in Central America, from the Yucatan
Peninsula to Belize, passing through Guatemala and Honduras, 
beyond El Salvador, along 88W/89W from 20N southward, moving W 10 
to 15 knots. Rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either 
side of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 19N16W, to 14N24W just to the south of the Cabo 
Verde Islands. The ITCZ continues from 14N24W to 09N35W, and
07N49W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong rainshowers
from 10N to 13N between 15W and 17W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are within 120 nm to 180 nm on either side of
the line that runs from 07N27W to 09N39W to 10N48W to 08N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico,
in the Texas coastal waters. The upper level trough is associated
with a frontal boundary that extends from SE Louisiana to east 
Texas and into south central Texas. A surface trough extends from
south central Georgia, through SE Louisiana, toward the coast of
Mexico near 24N. Precipitation:

isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the Straits
of Florida between 79W and 82W, around the periphery of the SE 
Cuba cyclonic circulation center. Widely scattered moderate to 
isolated strong rainshowers are to the north of the line that 
extends from 27N82W along the Florida west coast, to 23N90W, to 
22N98W along the coast of Mexico.

A surface trough is along the line from 23N94W to 17N95W in the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from land to 23N
between 90W and 95W.

The current Alabama-to-south Texas surface trough will wander 
in the western Gulf of Mexico between 85W and 95W through Friday,
and then it will dissipate. It is likely that widespread 
rainshowers with thunder may be in the vicinity of the trough, 
increasing in intensity by late afternoon and evening. A surface 
trough will form each day across the Yucatan Peninsula, and then 
move across the Bay of Campeche at night. Fresh to locally strong
winds will be possible in the eastern waters of the Bay of 
Campeche from sunset to midnight.

The current surface trough extending from near the Mouth of the 
Mississippi to the Bay of Campeche will nove slowly W, and 
inland across Texas and Mexico by Fri night. Showers and 
thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the trough. Surface 
troughs moving W from the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to 
locally strong winds over the eastern waters of the Bay of 
Campeche from sunset to around midnight. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through Cuba near 22N80W, into the SW 
corner of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate to strong 
rainshowers are from 11N to 13N between 80W and 86W, from the
coastal waters into the southern half of Nicaragua.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow also covers the NE part of the
area, from 15N to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and 70W.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is present in the area of
cyclonic wind flow.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia and
beyond 83W/84W in southern Costa Rica. Isolated moderate 
rainshowers are elsewhere in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, 
away from the scattered moderate to strong rainshowers that are 
with the upper level trough.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected in the 
central Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Honduras through Monday 
night. Scattered rainshowers from a tropical wave will move 
across the SE Caribbean Sea today, and across the central 
Caribbean Sea on Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 31N72W cyclonic circulation 
center, to a 21N80W cyclonic circulation center just off Cuba, to
11N83W in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 
50W and 80W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that 
is near 33N35W, to a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near 
33N66W.

The winds will pulse to strong speeds near the northern coast of 
Hispaniola each night through Monday night. Trade winds elsewhere 
across the region will diminish gradually through Saturday, as a 
ridge across the Atlantic Ocean weakens and lifts northward.

For additional information 
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
------------------------------------------------------------------
No change in the tropics for now.
RTW
 

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 2, 2018... 1004 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center
204 
AXNT20 KNHC 021205
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W from 17N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Widely scattered moderate to 
isolated strong rainshowers near the monsoon trough are from 06N 
to 10N between 30W and 37W. 

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W/50W from 19N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Rainshowers are possible from
10N to 20N between 45W and 56W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/64W from 18N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate 
rainshowers are from 10N to 18N between 60W and 68W. 

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W/88W from 20N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. The middle part of the
tropical wave is moving through Honduras and El Salvador. The
northern part is set to move into the Yucatan Peninsula.
Rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either side of the
tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 19N16W, to 15N23W just to the southeast of the 
Cabo Verde Islands, to 10N27W and 08N41W. The ITCZ continues
from 08N41W to 06N48W. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to 
isolated strong rainshowers are from 06N to 10N between 30W and 
37W, and from 07N to 10N between 41W and 44W. Isolated moderate
rainshowers from 06N to 10N between 50W and 59W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is at the Texas Gulf coast in the NW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level trough is associated with a
frontal boundary extends from east Texas into south central Texas,
parts of northern Mexico, and into west Texas. A surface trough
extends from SE Alabama, through SE Louisiana, to 27N94W in the
Gulf of Mexico, into the lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
in the Straits of Florida between 79W and 82W, around the
periphery of the SE Cuba cyclonic circulation center. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are to the north
of the line that extends from 27N82W along the Florida west coast,
to 23N90W, to 22N98W along the coast of Mexico.

A surface trough is along the line from 23N94W to 17N95W in the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from land to 23N
between 90W and 95W.

The current Alabama-to-south Texas surface trough will wander 
in the western Gulf of Mexico between 85W and 95W through Friday,
and then it will dissipate. It is likely that widespread 
rainshowers with thunder may be in the vicinity of the trough, 
increasing in intensity by late afternoon and evening. A surface 
trough will form each day across the Yucatan Peninsula, and then 
move across the Bay of Campeche at night. Fresh to locally strong
winds will be possible in the eastern waters of the Bay of 
Campeche from sunset to midnight.

A surface trough will meander over the central Gulf
through Fri. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are 
likely in the vicinity of the trough. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from a 20N77W SE Cuba cyclonic
circulation center, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea near
western Panama. Scattered strong rainshowers are within 60 nm on
either side of the line from 12N85W in Nicaragua, to 12N82W, to
10N78W off the coast of eastern Panama.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow also covers the NE part of the
area, from 15N to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and 70W.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is present in the area of
cyclonic wind flow.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia and
beyond 83W in southern Costa Rica. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are elsewhere in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, away from the
scattered strong rainshowers that are with the upper level trough.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected in the
central Caribbean Sea through Monday night. Scattered showers 
from a tropical wave will move across the SE Caribbean Sea today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 31N72W cyclonic circulation 
center, to a 21N80W cyclonic circulation center just off Cuba, to
11N83W in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 
50W and 80W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that 
is near 33N35W, to a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near 
33N66W.

Trade winds across the region will diminish through
Saturday, as the current 32N/33N ridge, between 20W and 70W 
across the Atlantic Ocean, weakens and lifts northward.

For additional information 
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
----------------------------------------------------------------
Sahara dust on the move westward large area of dust see tropic map
on Ralph's Tropical Weather website.

Wednesday, August 1, 2018

TROPICAL OUTLOOK AUG 1, 2018... 0326 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center
684 
AXNT20 KNHC 011747
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
147 PM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W from 17N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are from 09N to 10N between 23W and 26W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 07N to
11N between 21W and 29W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W/42W from 19N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 07N to 10N between 40W and 50W,
near the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W/60W from 17N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 08N to 13N between 60W and
63W. 

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/83W from 21N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from Honduras northward from 83W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 20N16W, to 16N23W in the Cabo Verde Islands.
The ITCZ is along 09N21W 09N41W 08N44W 07N53W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 60 nm to 120 nm
on either side of the line from 11N21W to 08N29W to 10N37W to
08N47W to 10N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are within 75 nm on either side of 10N52W 11N59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is at the Texas Gulf coast in the NW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level trough is associated with a
frontal boundary extends from east Texas into south central Texas,
parts of northern Mexico, and into west Texas. A surface trough
extends from SE Alabama, through SE Louisiana, to 27N94W in the
Gulf of Mexico, into the lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
in the Straits of Florida between 79W and 82W, around the
periphery of the SE Cuba cyclonic circulation center. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are to the north
of the line that extends from 27N82W along the Florida west coast,
to 23N90W, to 22N98W along the coast of Mexico.

A surface trough is along the line from 23N94W to 17N95W in the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from land to 23N
between 90W and 95W.

The current Alabama-to-south Texas surface trough will wander 
in the western Gulf of Mexico between 85W and 95W through Friday,
and then it will dissipate. It is likely that widespread 
rainshowers with thunder may be in the vicinity of the trough, 
increasing in intensity by late afternoon and evening. A surface 
trough will form each day across the Yucatan Peninsula, and then 
move across the Bay of Campeche at night. Fresh to locally strong
winds will be possible in the eastern waters of the Bay of 
Campeche from sunset to midnight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from a 20N77W SE Cuba cyclonic
circulation center, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea near
western Panama. Scattered strong rainshowers are within 60 nm on
either side of the line from 12N85W in Nicaragua, to 12N82W, to
10N78W off the coast of eastern Panama.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow also covers the NE part of the
area, from 15N to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and 70W.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is present in the area of
cyclonic wind flow.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia and
beyond 83W in southern Costa Rica. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are elsewhere in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, away from the
scattered strong rainshowers that are with the upper level trough.

Fresh to strong trade winds are expected in the central Caribbean
Sea through Sunday night. The wind speeds will pulse in the Gulf 
of Honduras each night. Scattered rainshowers with thunder in the
tropical N Atlantic Ocean, ahead of a tropical wave, will reach 
the SE Caribbean Sea tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 29N66W cyclonic circulation
center, to a SE Cuba cyclonic circulation center that is near
20N77W. The trough continues from SE Cuba into the SW corner of
the Caribbean Sea near western Panama. Rainshowers are possible in
the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 50W and 70W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center that
is near 37N24W, to a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near
35N38W, to a 1027 mb high pressure center that is near 34N63W,
to central Florida near 28N81W.

The current strong ridge, that extends from the Azores to central
Florida, will weaken and lift northward from Thursday through 
Saturday. The wind speeds will pulse to strong near the northern 
coast of Hispaniola at night.

For additional information 
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time.
RTW