3:05 PM EDT Mon Jun 28
Location: 32.2°N 79.7°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1014 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
RTW
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ISSUING UPDATES: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...
2:00 PM EDT Mon Jun 28
Location: 32.2°N 79.3°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1013 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
INVEST 96L HAS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS WEST OF WHERE THE 96L SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED. ACCORDING TO NHC THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAINS, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING WILL MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED BY NHC LATER TODAY IF 96L EXPANDS IN SIZE AND BECOMES STRONGER.
THIS SYSTEM 70-70% CHANCE FOR FORMATION THROUGH 48HRS AND 5-DAYS.
INVEST 95L COULD BECOME A DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AS IT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR FORMATION THROUGH 48HRS AND 5-DAYS.
RTW
LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED EAST SOUTHEAST OF GEORGIA CAROLINA BOARDER ACCORDING TO NHC AND A DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THIS SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL. STAY TUNED TO NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER UPDATES.
000 ABNT20 KNHC 271732 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Satellite imagery and nearby buoy and ship observations indicate that a small low pressure system has formed about 500 miles east-southeast of the Georgia-South Carolina border. Surface pressures have begun to fall across the area, and showers and thunderstorms have recently become better organized. Some additional development of this system will be possible later today, and especially on Monday when the system will move across the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream, and a tropical depression could form before the system makes landfall along the southern U.S. coast. The low is expected to move westward today, and then west-northwestward at about 15 mph on Monday, reaching the coast of the southeastern United States by late Monday. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Monday afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean more than 700 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Little, if any, development of this system is expected for the next couple of days, followed by some gradual development by Wednesday and continuing through the end of the week while it moves it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Latto
QUICK UPDATE SINCE I'M RUNNING ON LOW ON MY LAPTOP BATTERY AND I FORGOT TO BRING MY A/C ADAPTER HOME FROM WORK.
TWO ARE BEING MONITOR ONE EAST OF GEORGIA AND THE ONE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE ONE EAST OF US GEORGIA HAS A LOW FORMATION CHANCE 10% AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SYSTEM HAS A LOW 30% FORMATION CHANCE.
RTW
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
441 ABNT20 KNHC 261751 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A tropical wave associated with a broad area of low pressure is located over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean about 400 miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Although shower and thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, some slow development will be possible over the next several days while the disturbance moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A surface trough located a couple hundred miles south of Bermuda is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although surface pressures are currently high across the area, some additional slow development could occur while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
850 ABNT20 KNHC 251127 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern Atlantic are associated with a strong tropical wave. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next several days due to marginally conducive environmental conditions. This wave is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical eastern and central Atlantic through the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Papin
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
000 ABNT20 KNHC 241753 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A strong tropical wave located over the far east Atlantic off the African coast is producing a broad area of showers and thunderstorms. As the system moves west-northwestward into the central Atlantic Ocean, conditions appear only marginally conducive for development due to relatively cool ocean temperatures. However, a small tropical depression could still form by early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Recent satellite-derived surface winds indicate that the small area of low pressure located about 100 miles east-southeast of Barbados has degenerated into a trough. In addition, shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished with this system. Unfavorable upper-level winds are expected to prevent development of this disturbance while moving toward the west-northwest at about 10 mph. Even though development is not expected, the disturbance could produce increased shower activity and some gusty winds while moving across the Lesser Antilles over the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
000 ABNT20 KNHC 241124 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity is decreasing this morning to the east of a small area of low pressure located more than 100 miles east-southeast of Barbados. Increasing upper-level winds are likely to prevent further development of this system during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. This disturbance could produce increased shower activity and some gusty winds while moving across the Lesser Antilles over the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. A strong tropical wave has emerged just off the coast of Africa this morning. Although ocean temperatures are still relatively cool over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and are only marginally conducive for development, a small tropical depression could form by early next week while this system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the tropical eastern and central Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
TRACK THE TROPICS WITH RTW
THE STORM INVEST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS STILL HAS A LOW 10% FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND 5-DAYS. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR AHEAD OF THIS INVEST WILL KEEP IT FROM DEVELOPING.
A FUTURE STRONGER WAVE WILL EMERGE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST BY FRIDAY OR THE WEEKEND. MODELS THIS MORNING HAD THIS WAVE DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRACKING IT FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WITH AN AREA OF SQUALLS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, AND POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THIS ONE WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
FORMATION CHANCE FOR FUTURE INVEST IS LOW 0% THROUGH 48 HOURS AND LOW 20% THROUGH 5-DAYS.
REMEMBER THOUGH LONG RANGE FORECAST USUALLY HAVE ERROR IN THE FORECAST.
RTW
STORM INVEST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS NOT CHANGED AND CHANCES FOR FORMATION ARE EVEN LOWER 10% THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THROUGH 5-DAYS. CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN, CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME.
RTW
STORM INVEST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS NOT ANY BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS IT ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. FORMATION CHANCE ARE LOW 20% THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THROUGH 5-DAYS.
RTW
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
000 ABNT20 KNHC 221738 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized associated with the tropical wave located about 500 miles east of the Windward Islands. In addition, recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate the wave has not become better defined since yesterday. This system is expected to move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and has a limited amount of time remaining for development before upper-level winds become less favorable by Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
