RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE...JUNE 29, 2021...10:31AM EDT

 

TRACKING THE TROPICS INVEST 95L AND 97L IN THE ATLANTIC

INVEST 95L MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES, BUT THE MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THAT95L WILL BE A SHORT LIVED STORM SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS INTO THE EAST CARIBBEAN.

FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS LOW 30% AND MED 40% THROUGH 5-DAYS.

INVEST 97L THE GFS MODEL SUGGEST THAT 97L WILL SURVIVE AND MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER, THIS IS A LONG RANGE FORECAST RUN AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR COMING MODEL RUN TO SEE IF THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SAME.  THE EURO MODEL SHOW LOW PRESSURE WITH AN AREA OF SQUALLS TO THE NORTH POSSIBLY A TROPICAL STORM, TRACKING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  

FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48HRS LOW 10% AND LOW 20% THROUGH 5-DAYS.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

796 
ABNT20 KNHC 291140
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on the 
remnants of Tropical Depression Danny, located inland over eastern 
Georgia.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with 
a tropical wave located over the tropical Atlantic, about 850 miles 
east of the Lesser Antilles.  Some slow development of this 
disturbance is possible later this week and this weekend while the 
system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, likely 
reaching the Lesser Antilles by Wednesday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 800 
miles southwest of the Cabo Verde islands has become a little 
better organized since yesterday.  Additional slow development of 
this system is possible during the next several days as it moves 
generally west-northwestward at about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on the remnants of Danny are issued under 
WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on the remnants of Danny are issued under 
WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Beven 

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE STORM INVEST 95L

 STORM INVEST 98L NOT LOOKING ALL THAT ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER, SOME SLOW ORGANIZATION COULD OCCUR AS IT TRACKS FURTHER WEST.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

557 
ABNT20 KNHC 281748
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed 
Tropical Depression Four, located less than 100 miles east-southeast 
of Beaufort, South Carolina.

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is 
producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.  Some slow 
development of this disturbance is possible after the middle of the 
week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 
20 mph, likely reaching the Lesser Antilles by Wednesday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Four are issued under 
WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Four are issued under 
WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Papin

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

TROPICAL DEPRESSION UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DANNY!

 

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... 

3:05 PM EDT Mon Jun 28
Location: 32.2°N 79.7°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1014 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

TROPICAL DEPRESSION #4 OFF THE CAROLINA COAST

 

DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF GEORGIA AND CAROLINA COAST

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ISSUING UPDATES: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...

2:00 PM EDT Mon Jun 28
Location: 32.2°N 79.3°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1013 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

 

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE...09:20AM EDT

 

TRACKING INVEST 96L EAST OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINA COAST AND 95L OVER CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

INVEST 96L HAS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS WEST OF WHERE THE 96L SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED.  ACCORDING TO NHC THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL THIS EVENING.  HEAVY RAINS, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING WILL MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED BY NHC LATER TODAY IF 96L EXPANDS IN SIZE AND BECOMES STRONGER.  

THIS SYSTEM 70-70% CHANCE FOR FORMATION THROUGH 48HRS AND 5-DAYS.

INVEST 95L COULD BECOME A DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AS IT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.  MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.  

THIS SYSTEM HAS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR FORMATION THROUGH 48HRS AND 5-DAYS.

RTW

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE...JUNE 27, 2021...04:33PM EDT

 

TRACKING THE TROPICS:

LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED EAST SOUTHEAST OF GEORGIA CAROLINA BOARDER ACCORDING TO NHC AND A DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THIS SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL.  STAY TUNED TO NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER UPDATES.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271732
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite imagery and nearby buoy and ship observations indicate 
that a small low pressure system has formed about 500 miles 
east-southeast of the Georgia-South Carolina border. Surface 
pressures have begun to fall across the area, and showers and 
thunderstorms have recently become better organized. Some additional 
development of this system will be possible later today, and 
especially on Monday when the system will move across the warmer 
waters of the Gulf Stream, and a tropical depression could form 
before the system makes landfall along the southern U.S. coast. The 
low is expected to move westward today, and then west-northwestward 
at about 15 mph on Monday, reaching the coast of the southeastern 
United States by late Monday.  An Air Force Reserve Unit 
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system 
Monday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave located over 
the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean more than 700 miles southwest of 
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Little, if any, development of this system is 
expected for the next couple of days, followed by some gradual 
development by Wednesday and continuing through the end of the week 
while it moves it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 20 
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Latto

 

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE...0353PM EDT

 

TRACKING THE TROPICS

QUICK UPDATE SINCE I'M RUNNING ON LOW ON MY LAPTOP BATTERY AND I FORGOT TO BRING MY A/C ADAPTER HOME FROM WORK.

TWO ARE BEING MONITOR ONE EAST OF GEORGIA AND THE ONE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE ONE EAST OF US GEORGIA HAS A LOW FORMATION CHANCE 10% AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SYSTEM HAS A LOW 30% FORMATION CHANCE.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

441 
ABNT20 KNHC 261751
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave associated with a broad area of low pressure is 
located over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean about 400 miles 
south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Although shower and 
thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, some slow 
development will be possible over the next several days while the 
disturbance moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A surface trough located a couple hundred miles south of Bermuda is 
producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
Although surface pressures are currently high across the area, some 
additional slow development could occur while the system moves 
westward at 10 to 15 mph over the next few days. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JUNE 25, 2021...07:42AM EDT

 

TRACKING THE TROPICS:

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

850 
ABNT20 KNHC 251127
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern Atlantic 
are associated with a strong tropical wave.  Development, if any, of 
this system should be slow to occur during the next several days due 
to marginally conducive environmental conditions.  This wave is 
expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph 
across the tropical eastern and central Atlantic through the middle 
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Papin

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JUNE 24, 2021...03:36PM EDT

 

TRACKING THE TROPICS:

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
ABNT20 KNHC 241753
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A strong tropical wave located over the far east Atlantic off the 
African coast is producing a broad area of showers and 
thunderstorms. As the system moves west-northwestward into the 
central Atlantic Ocean, conditions appear only marginally conducive 
for development due to relatively cool ocean temperatures. However, 
a small tropical depression could still form by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Recent satellite-derived surface winds indicate that the small area 
of low pressure located about 100 miles east-southeast of Barbados 
has degenerated into a trough. In addition, shower and thunderstorm 
activity has diminished with this system. Unfavorable upper-level 
winds are expected to prevent development of this disturbance while 
moving toward the west-northwest at about 10 mph.  Even though 
development is not expected, the disturbance could produce increased 
shower activity and some gusty winds while moving across the Lesser 
Antilles over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi