TROPICAL STORM A LITTLE STRONGER DISPITE 28 MPH FORWARD SPEED...JULY 1, 2021 1100 AM EDT

ELSA HAS MANAGED TO STRENGTHEN SOME REGARDLESS OF FAST FORWARD SPEED.  ANOTHER FREAK OF NATURE STORMS SYSTEM.  WATCH AND WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES AS ELSA TRACKS QUICKLY NEAR 28 MPH TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

11:00 AM AST Thu Jul 1
Location: 10.1°N 51.4°W
Moving: W at 28 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

TROPICAL STORM ELSA MOVING BRISKLY TO THE WEST AT 25 MPH...JULY 1, 2021

TROPICAL STORM ELSA MOVING TO FAST FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR.  

TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES (SEE NHC WATCH AND WARNING SUMMARY IN THE PUBLIC ADVISORY SECTION)

RTW

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

8:00 AM AST Thu Jul 1
Location: 9.6°N 50.2°W
Moving: W at 25 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WATCH ISSUED FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE ATLANTIC BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... 

CLICK ON BELOW LINK FOR THIS EVENING NEXT UPDATE:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

5:00 PM AST Wed Jun 30
Location: 9.6°N 43.7°W
Moving: WNW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

 

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

 

...RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JUNE 30, 2021...03:49PM EDT

 

TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE

INVEST 95L FORMATION CHANCE DOWN TO LOW 0%, AS FOR INVEST 97L FORMATION CHANCE INCREASED TO HIGH 70% THROUGH 48HOURS AND HIGH 90% THROUGH 5-DAYS.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

554 
ABNT20 KNHC 301735
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area 
and tropical wave located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the 
Windward Islands have become better organized since yesterday.  
However, recent satellite wind data indicates that the disturbance 
does not have a well-defined circulation.  Environmental conditions 
appear generally favorable for continued development, and a tropical 
depression or storm is likely to form during the next day or two 
while the system moves west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph.  
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress 
of this system, as advisories on a potential tropical cyclone, 
accompanied by tropical storm watches for portions of this area, are 
likely to be issued later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical 
wave located over the Lesser Antilles.  This system has become less 
organized since yesterday, and significant development is no longer 
expected while it moves quickly westward across the Caribbean Sea.  
The wave should continue to produce locally heavy rains over 
portions of the Lesser Antilles through tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

...RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE...JUNE 30, 2021...11:21AM EDT...

 

TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE:"

STILL MONITORING TWO TROPICAL WAVES WHICH ARE BOTH STORM INVESTIGATIONS.

1. INVEST 95L: WHICH HAS A FORMATION LOW CHANCE THROUGH 48HS 10% AND LOW 10% THROUGH 5-DAYS.  MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING QUICKLY AND DISSIPATING.

2. INVEST 97L: WHICH SEEMS TO BE THE HEALTHIEST OF THE TWO WAVES AND GFS MODEL TENDS TO TRACK THIS ONE FURTHER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS WAVE TO ME IS THE ONE TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR NOW.  

97L HAS A HIGH FORMATION CHANCE 80% THROUGH 5-DAYS.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE GFS IS A LONG RANGE FORECAST MODEL AND THERE IS ALWAYS ERROR IN THE FORECAST RUN.  HOWEVER, PERSISTENCE IN THE MODEL RUN WILL ALWAYS GRAB MY ATTENTION.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL DOES NOT SHOE MUCH BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IN TIME.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301138
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is 
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the 
Windward Islands.  This system is producing a large area of showers 
and thunderstorms that continues to show some signs of organization. 
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for development, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few 
days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph.  
Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should closely 
monitor this system as it will likely be moving through that region 
on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with 
a tropical wave located just east of the Lesser Antilles.
Significant development of this system is unlikely while it moves 
quickly westward to west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph, passing 
through the Lesser Antilles today and then across the eastern and 
central Caribbean Sea later this week.  Regardless of development, 
this system could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the 
Lesser Antilles during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

 NOTICING MODELS TRENDING TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS TRACKS. 

BOTH THE LATEST AND PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER.

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JUNE 29, 2021...04:07PM EDT

 

TRACKING THE TROPICS STORM INVEST 95L AND 97L

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

FOR EVENING UPDATE CLICK ON NHC WEBSITE LINK BELOW:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291745
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with 
a tropical wave located over the tropical Atlantic about 650 miles 
east of the Lesser Antilles.  Some slow development of this 
disturbance is possible later this week while the system moves 
westward to west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph, likely reaching the 
Lesser Antilles by Wednesday night.  Regardless of development, 
this system could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the 
Lesser Antilles during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 900 
miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to show signs 
of organization.  Additional development of this system is possible 
during the next several days as it moves generally west- 
northwestward at about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

PLEASE NOTE THAT NOAA HAS BEEN DOING MAINTENANCE TO THEIR SATELLITE TODAY. THIS SATELLITE OUTAGE CAUSES A SHORTER ANIMATION DUE TO MISSING IMAGES.  SORRY FOR THE INCONVENIENCE.

RTW

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather