...RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JUNE 30, 2021...03:49PM EDT

 

TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE

INVEST 95L FORMATION CHANCE DOWN TO LOW 0%, AS FOR INVEST 97L FORMATION CHANCE INCREASED TO HIGH 70% THROUGH 48HOURS AND HIGH 90% THROUGH 5-DAYS.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

554 
ABNT20 KNHC 301735
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area 
and tropical wave located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the 
Windward Islands have become better organized since yesterday.  
However, recent satellite wind data indicates that the disturbance 
does not have a well-defined circulation.  Environmental conditions 
appear generally favorable for continued development, and a tropical 
depression or storm is likely to form during the next day or two 
while the system moves west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph.  
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress 
of this system, as advisories on a potential tropical cyclone, 
accompanied by tropical storm watches for portions of this area, are 
likely to be issued later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical 
wave located over the Lesser Antilles.  This system has become less 
organized since yesterday, and significant development is no longer 
expected while it moves quickly westward across the Caribbean Sea.  
The wave should continue to produce locally heavy rains over 
portions of the Lesser Antilles through tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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