...RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE...JUNE 30, 2021...11:21AM EDT...

 

TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE:"

STILL MONITORING TWO TROPICAL WAVES WHICH ARE BOTH STORM INVESTIGATIONS.

1. INVEST 95L: WHICH HAS A FORMATION LOW CHANCE THROUGH 48HS 10% AND LOW 10% THROUGH 5-DAYS.  MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING QUICKLY AND DISSIPATING.

2. INVEST 97L: WHICH SEEMS TO BE THE HEALTHIEST OF THE TWO WAVES AND GFS MODEL TENDS TO TRACK THIS ONE FURTHER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS WAVE TO ME IS THE ONE TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR NOW.  

97L HAS A HIGH FORMATION CHANCE 80% THROUGH 5-DAYS.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE GFS IS A LONG RANGE FORECAST MODEL AND THERE IS ALWAYS ERROR IN THE FORECAST RUN.  HOWEVER, PERSISTENCE IN THE MODEL RUN WILL ALWAYS GRAB MY ATTENTION.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL DOES NOT SHOE MUCH BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IN TIME.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301138
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is 
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the 
Windward Islands.  This system is producing a large area of showers 
and thunderstorms that continues to show some signs of organization. 
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for development, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few 
days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph.  
Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should closely 
monitor this system as it will likely be moving through that region 
on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with 
a tropical wave located just east of the Lesser Antilles.
Significant development of this system is unlikely while it moves 
quickly westward to west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph, passing 
through the Lesser Antilles today and then across the eastern and 
central Caribbean Sea later this week.  Regardless of development, 
this system could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the 
Lesser Antilles during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

 NOTICING MODELS TRENDING TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS TRACKS. 

BOTH THE LATEST AND PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER.

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather