RTW
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ELSA A LITTLE WEAKER AND MOVING SLOWER BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA...
RTW
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
...ELSA SLOWS DOWN AS IT PASSES BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA... ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM...
8:00 PM EDT Sat Jul 3
Location: 17.8°N 74.7°W
Moving: WNW at 23 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
THERE ARE STILL TWO INTENSITY MODELS THAT SUGGEST ELSA AS A CAT 1 HURRICANE AGAIN. THIS OF COURSE WOULD BE TEMPORARY AS CUBA IS IN ELSA PATH AND MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL MOST DEFINITELY DISRUPT THE STORMS STRUCTURE.
FLORIDA KEYS AND DRY TORTUGA UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND EVENTUALLY THAT WILL BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNING DEPENDING ON ELSA'S STORM STRUCTURE SURVIVING MORE LAND INTERACTION.
RTW
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
...CENTER OF ELSA CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
5:00 PM EDT Sat Jul 3
Location: 17.5°N 73.9°W
Moving: WNW at 28 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
NHC FORECAST TRACK TREND
...CENTER OF ELSA PASSING SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...
2:00 PM EDT Sat Jul 3
Location: 17.3°N 73.0°W
Moving: WNW at 29 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
ELSA IS MOVING EVEN FASTER 31 MPH, THIS IS PRODUCING VERTICAL SHEAR OF THE STORM CENTER AND CAUSING THE CENTER TO TILT IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY YOU CAN SEE THE FLUCTUATION IN CLOUD TEMPERATURE FROM WARM TO COLD AND BACK TO WARM.
IN ORDER FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP, IT NEEDS TO HAVE A VERTICALLY STACKED CENTER, COLD CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE CENTER, AND NO VERTICAL SHEAR DISPERSING CLOUDS AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
AS LONG AS ELSA CONTINUES AT THIS FAST FORWARD SPEED, THE PROBABILITY OF STRENGTHENING IS MINIMAL. ELSA IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME BEFORE LAND INTERACTION TO RECOVER HER STRENGTH.
HOWEVER, AFTER SEEING ELSA STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE WHILE MOVING AT 28 MPH YOU CAN'T RULE OUT SOME FLUCTUATION IN INTENSITY BEFORE INTERACTION WITH LAND MASS.
MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SUGGEST A TROPICAL STORM SOUTHWEST PASSING OVER CUBA AND SOUTHWEST OF THE FLORIDA COAST. GFS NO LONGER SUGGESTING A HURRICANE, EURO IS NOW ONBOARD WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY THAT THIS WON'T BE A HURRICANE PASSING OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. HURRICANE CENTER MODELS ALSO NOT SUGGESTING A STRONG SYSTEM AS WELL.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND BE READY FOR WHAT IS TO COME. BUT AS IT LOOKS NOW, ODDS OF A HURRICANE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE LOW.
RTW
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
5:00 AM AST Sat Jul 3
Location: 16.2°N 69.0°W
Moving: WNW at 31 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
ELSA FAST FORWARD SPEED HAS TEMPORARILY HALTED STRENGTHENING PROCESS.
ELSA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOME ON SATURDAY.
RTW
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
11:00 PM AST Fri Jul 2
Location: 14.8°N 66.3°W
Moving: WNW at 29 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph
