RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JULY 31, 2021

 

SO FAR NO TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME.  THE ONLY MODEL SUGGESTING LOW PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC, IS THE EURO MODEL AND THAT WOULD BE SOME TIME AROUND THE 8TH OF AUGUST.  

REMEMBER THESE LONG RANGE FORECAST ARE ALWAYS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AND THERE MAY BE NO DEVELOPMENT BY THEN.  I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION AS WE ENTER AUGUST.

RTW

 

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JULY 30, 2021

 

THE TROPICS REMAIN QUIET FOR NOW.  THREE TROPICAL WAVES TRACKING WEST TWO IN THE ATLANTIC AND ONE IN THE CARIBBEAN.  NONE ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.

RTW

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JULY 29, 2021

 

ALL AREAS OF THE GULF, CARIBBEAN NORTH ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS FREE FROM TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.  I AM MONITORING CLOSELY THE AFRICAN COAST FOR LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

RTW

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JULY 28, 2021

 

GULF OF MEXICO CARIBBEAN SEA LOOKING QUIET FOR NOW.  

NORTH ATLANTIC LOOKING QUIET AS WELL WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS A STRONG WAVE NEAR 25°-24° WEST INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS REGION.  SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  I WILL MONITOR THIS AREA CLOSELY.

RTW

 

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JULY 27 2021

 

OVER ALL THERE ARE FOUR TROPICAL WAVES TRACKING WEST.  

• THE FIRST THREE WAVES ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN ONE NEAR 86°-85° WEST.

• THE SECOND WAVE IS NEAR 80°-78° WEST, THIS WAVES HAS STRONG TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AXIS OF THE WAVES. 

• THE THIRD WAVE IS NEAR 66°-65° AND THIS WAVE HAS NO SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

• THE FORTH WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 31°-30° WEST.  THIS WAVE HAS SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS. ALONG THE SOUTHERN AXIS OF THE WAVE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERACTION BETWEEN AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS REGION.

NONE OF THESE WAVES ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

RTW

 

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS MORNING UPDATE JULY 26, 2021

 

 INVEST 90L REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT 30%.  

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK

000
ABNT20 KNHC 261144
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images and radar data indicate that shower and 
thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure system located 
a short distance east of Jacksonville, Florida, remains disorganized 
and limited in coverage.  Development of this system has become less 
likely before the low moves inland over northeastern Florida or 
southeastern Georgia later today.  However, interests in these areas 
should continue to monitor the progress of this system due to the 
possibility of brief periods of gusty winds and locally heavy 
rainfall.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS AFTERNOON UPDATE JULY 25, 2021

 

NOT MUCH CHANGE SINCE THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH DRY AIR HAS BEEN REPLACED BY MOISTURE IN ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  PRESSURE DROPPED A MILLIBAR FROM 1013MB TO 1012MB.  NOTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.  THERE STILL A CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A DEPRESSION BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ANYWHERE FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO GEORGIA.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK

000
ABNT20 KNHC 251757
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure area located about 150 miles east of Daytona Beach, 
Florida, is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity 
mainly over the southern part of its circulation.  Preliminary 
reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate 
that this system has changed little in strength since yesterday.  
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for development, 
and a tropical depression could still form later today or early 
Monday while the low drifts westward or west-northwestward toward 
the northeast coast of Florida.  Interests in Florida should 
continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch