RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 5, 2021 0334 PM EDT

 

INVEST 92L NOW HAS A FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48HRS MEDIUM 40% AND HIGH 70% THROUGH 5-DAYS.

THE OTHER INVEST REMAINS AT LOW 0%-20%

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK

655 
ABNT20 KNHC 051729
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing a large 
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected 
to move off the coasts of Senegal, The Gambia, and Guinea-Bissau 
later tonight.  Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive 
for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
over the eastern tropical Atlantic south of the Cabo Verde Islands 
by late Saturday or early Sunday while the system moves westward 
to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues 
to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for 
some slow development east of the Lesser Antilles by early next week 
while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 5, 2021

 

STORM INVESTIGATION 92L HAS A FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48HRS LOW 20% AND THROUGH 5-DAYS MEDIUM 60%.  AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER NORTH OF THE LATITUDE ITS PRESENTLY TRACKING ON WHICH IS ALONG THE MOIST MONSOON TROUGH REGION, IT WILL MORE THAN ENCOUNTER DRY AIR.  THIS ABUNDANCE OF SAHARA DUST/DRY AIR LAYER WILL MORE THAN LIKELY HINDER DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST TO A NORTHWEST IN THE COMING WEEK.  I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT FOR YOU.

STORM INVEST EAST OF SOUTH AMERICA  HAS A FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48HRS LOW 0% AND A FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 5-DAYS LOW 20%. THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION ARE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051136
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A westward-moving tropical wave just inland over Africa is producing 
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is 
expected to move off of the west African coast later today. 
Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual 
development, and a tropical depression could form over the eastern 
tropical Atlantic by late Sunday or early next week while the system 
moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues 
to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for 
some slow development east of the Lesser Antilles by early next week 
while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 4, 2021

 A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE AFRICAN CONTINENT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF SHORE IN A DAY OR SO HAS A MEDIUM 40% FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 5-DAYS.

INVEST 91L STILL HAS A LOW FORMATION CHANCE 0%

THE OTHER WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EAST OF SOUTH AMERICA HAS A LOW 20% FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 5-DAYS.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041748
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small low pressure area with limited shower and thunderstorm
activity is meandering over or near the Cabo Verde Islands.  
Significant development of this system is not expected during the
next day or so due to unfavorable environmental conditions. However,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible over
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through today while the system
moves little. Additional information on the low can be found in high
seas forecasts issued by Meteo-France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for
some slow development east of the Lesser Antilles by Sunday and into
early next week while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the west coast of Africa
by late Thursday. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive
for gradual development thereafter over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic through the weekend into early next week while the system
moves generally westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
Additional information on the low pressure system near the Cabo
Verde Islands can be found in high seas forecasts issued by Meteo
France...under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
Forecaster Pagano/Stewart

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

ANOTHER STORM INVESTIGATION ADDED TO ATLANTIC BASIN

 

ANOTHER STORM INVESTIGATION IN THE ATLANTIC THEY SEEM TO BE POPPING LIKE POPCORN.  NOW THAT WE ARE IN AUGUST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ACTIVITY BEGINS.  CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER DRY IN THE ATLANTIC WITH SAHARA DUST STILL LINGERING.  THERE ARE NO GUIDANCE MODELS OUT FOR THESE TWO SYSTEMS AS THEY ARE STILL IN THE LOW FORMATION CHANCE STATUS.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041215 CCA
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021

Corrected order of disturbances

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small and weak area of low pressure, with limited shower and 
thunderstorm activity, is passing near the Cabo Verde Islands.  
Significant development of this system is not expected during the 
next day or so due to unfavorable environmental conditions. 
Thereafter, this system is forecast to move northward or 
north-northwestward over cooler waters, ending its development 
chances.  Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over 
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is 
producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive 
for some slow development east of the Lesser Antilles by Sunday and 
into early next week while the disturbance moves west-northwestward 
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by 
late Thursday. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive 
for some slow development over the far eastern Atlantic through the 
weekend into early next week while the system moves generally 
westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Stewart

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

NEW FUTURE WAVE INVESTIGATION AND PRESENT STORM INVESTIGATION

 

NHC HAS ADDED ANOTHER INVESTIGATION AREA OVER FAR EAST ATLANTIC.  THIS IS A FUTURE WAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OF THE AFRICAN COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE OTHER INVESTIGATION HAS NOW BEEN NUMBERED INVEST 91L.  I WAS ABLE TO PULL UP MODELS FOR THAT SYSTEM.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

066 
ABNT20 KNHC 031734
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small area of low pressure with some associated showers and 
thunderstorms is located about 100 miles south of Praia in the Cabo 
Verde Islands. Significant development of this system is not 
expected during the next day or two due to unfavorable upper-level 
winds and marginally warm waters.  The low is forecast to move 
northward or north-northwestward through Thursday before the system 
moves over cool waters, ending development chances.  Locally heavy 
rainfall and gusty winds are possible over portions of the Cabo 
Verde Islands through Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by 
late Thursday.  This system has the potential for slow development 
over the far eastern Atlantic through the weekend while it moves 
westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake 

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 3, 2021

 

STORM INVESTIGATION OFF THE AFRICAN COAST HAS A FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HRS AND 5 DAYS LOW 10%.  THE EURO IS NO LONGER SUGGESTING A TROPICAL CYCLONE SO I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ELSEWHERE THE ALL REMAINS QUIET FOR NOW.

RTW

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

NEW STORM INVESTIGATION OFF THE AFRICAN COAST

 

THERE IS A NEW AREA OF INVESTIGATION OFF THE AFRICAN COAST.  HERE IS THE MAPS AND THE NHC TROPICAL OUTLOOK.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
ABNT20 KNHC 021729
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 2 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A surface trough of low pressure over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean 
centered a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is 
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Some development 
of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it 
moves northward or northwestward before the system moves over cool 
waters by Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE... AUG 2, 2021

 

THE TROPICS REMAINS QUIET FOR NOW AND WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR ALL AREAS.

THE EURO MODEL CONTINUES TO INSIST ON TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMING AND RE-CURVING OUT TO SEA. 

RTW

 

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather