INVESTIGATION 92L HAS TAKEN A TRACK NORTH FOR NOW INTO AN AREA WITH NO DRY AIR. THIS IS TEMPORARY AND A TRACK BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF 92L ARE NOT FAVORABLE AND IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
NEW 93L HAS A BETTER CHANCE IF IT TRACKS SOUTH OF THE DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND STAYS ON A TRACK INTO THE CARIBBEAN. IT DOES NOT SEEM THAT IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN AS MODELS TRACK THIS SYSTEM NORTH IN TIME. HOWEVER, THE 18z GFS DEVELOPS 93L AND TURNS IT AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S..
AS FOR THE NO NUMBER INVEST, THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT STAND A CHANCE IF IT TRACKS NORTH EITHER, HOWEVER SOME MODELS TAKE A WEAK SYSTEM INTO THE CARIBBEAN IN TIME AND DEVELOPS SOME IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
RTW
477
ABNT20 KNHC 071730
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a little more than 100 miles south of the
southwesternmost Cabo Verde Islands have increased today. Some
gradual additional development is possible during the next day or
so but strong upper-level winds and cooler waters are likely to
prevent significant development after that time. The system is
expected to move generally west-northwestward to northwestward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic at 10 to 15 mph. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are
possible over portions of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands
tonight and Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
A small but well-defined area of low pressure located over the
tropical Atlantic about a thousand miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to produce limited shower activity. Environmental
conditions are expected to become a little more favorable for
gradual development over the next several days, and this system
could become a tropical depression by the middle of next week.
The system is forecast to drift toward the west-southwest or west
during the next couple of days, and then move a little faster
toward the west-northwest early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
A tropical wave located over the west-central tropical Atlantic
is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Significant
development of this system is not anticipated as it moves
west-northwestward across the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean
Sea during the early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Brown
STORM INVEST 92L
STORM INVEST 93L
